Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]
Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | $9 | $22K | A | KXLARGECUT-26 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by more than 25 basis points before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
For example, this market will resolve to Yes if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 50 basis points during one day, non-scheduled meetings are included. The Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January and 25 basis points in March would not be sufficient to resolve this market.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- Federal Reserve source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
- Fed rate cut above 25 basis points anchors at deep discount Kalshi 8%
- Kalshi prices only an 8% probability that the Fed delivers a rate cut larger than 25 basis points in 2026.
- Warsh's hawkish signals are consistent with the near-zero cut pricing; the market is not treating the June CPI softness as a policy pivot catalyst.
- With inflation at 3.5% year over year per Story 2, the Kalshi contract reflects a market that sees hikes as more likely than deep cuts this year.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decision; any cut would need to exceed 25bp to settle YES.
- Large Fed cut consensus collapses as hawkish posture holds Kalshi 8%
- Kalshi prices only an 8% chance the Federal Reserve cuts by more than 25 basis points at any point in 2026.
- Warsh's hawkish 'no tolerance' inflation rhetoric is fully consistent with a market that has nearly priced out aggressive easing.
- Polymarket simultaneously prices a 51% chance of a hike this year, creating a market picture skewed toward tightening rather than relief.
- Resolution is determined by the Federal Reserve's own policy announcement; any cut must exceed 25 basis points at a single meeting to qualify.
- Outsized Fed cut consensus stays deeply deflated Kalshi 9%
- Kalshi prices only 9% on the Fed cutting by more than 25 basis points at any single meeting in 2026.
- Warsh's hawkish framing is fully consistent with this low probability; markets are not pricing an emergency or jumbo easing cycle.
- Separate ladder markets across multiple horizons imply the Fed funds upper bound ending the year in the 3.50-3.75% range, pointing to modest, incremental cuts at most.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decision; a cut larger than 25bp would require a single meeting move of 50bp or more.
- Deep cut probability anchors near zero despite inflation alarm Kalshi 7%
- The Kalshi contract puts only 7% probability on the Fed delivering a cut larger than 25 basis points at any point in 2026.
- The Fed report's explicit inflation warnings from three simultaneous supply and demand shocks are consistent with the market's near-dismissal of aggressive easing.
- Read alongside the Kalshi ladder implying the upper bound stays in the 3.50-3.75% range, the market is pricing a prolonged freeze, not a pivot.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve announcement; any single meeting with a cut exceeding 25bp triggers resolution, making this sensitive to emergency-action scenarios the market currently prices at just 7%.
- Jumbo cut pricing wavers near historic lows despite weak data Kalshi 7%
- Kalshi prices only 7% on the Fed cutting by more than 25 basis points at any 2026 meeting, signaling near-consensus against a jumbo cut.
- Despite 57,000 June payrolls and divided Fed minutes, the market is not pricing emergency-style easing; the 7% reflects institutional resistance to large cuts.
- A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-5Z1MKFCSL8) prices only 10% on an emergency Fed meeting in 2026, consistent with the low jumbo-cut probability.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate announcement; a jumbo cut would require either a sharp deterioration in labor markets or a financial stability event beyond current pricing.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxlargecut-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxlargecut-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxlargecut-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
"slug": "kxlargecut-26",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"federal-reserve",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"rate-cuts",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 21576,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}