Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | 2027-01-01 | 5.2% | $67 | $27K | A | KXLARGECUT-26 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by more than 25 basis points before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
For example, this market will resolve to Yes if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 50 basis points during one day, non-scheduled meetings are included. The Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January and 25 basis points in March would not be sufficient to resolve this market.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
Federal Reserve committed source
recent wire items
- Odds of outsized Fed cut this year stay near zero Kalshi 5%
- Kalshi puts just 5% odds on the Federal Reserve cutting rates by more than 25 basis points in 2026, resolved via Federal Reserve decisions.
- Warsh's hawkish framing at Jackson Hole, avoiding any easing signal, is fully consistent with this near-zero cut probability.
- The Kalshi contract pricing aligns with a market consensus that the next move is more likely a hike than a large cut.
- Cross-referencing the 68% Polymarket hike probability against this 5% large-cut probability reveals a strongly asymmetric tightening bias in prediction markets.
- Fed jumbo cut this year stays a long shot Kalshi 5%
- Kalshi puts only 5% odds on a Federal Reserve rate cut exceeding 25 basis points at any point in 2026.
- July PCE data showing sticky core inflation at 3.3% year-over-year is consistent with the market's near-dismissal of an outsized cut.
- RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas noted the Fed is well positioned to hold at 3.5%-3.75% ahead of its September meeting.
- Resolves via the Federal Reserve's official rate decision announcements through year-end 2026.
- Odds on a large Fed rate cut this year remain a long shot Kalshi 6%
- The Kalshi contract puts only 6% probability on the Fed cutting by more than 25 basis points at any 2026 meeting.
- With the July FOMC minutes flagging potential hikes and debt crossing $40 trillion adding fiscal complexity, the Kalshi pricing treats any large cut as a remote tail.
- This is directionally consistent with the Kalshi near-term funds rate ladder implying a hold-to-hike bias, not an easing cycle.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decision; a cut greater than 25bp would require a sharp pivot from the current committee posture.
- Jumbo Fed cut in 2026 remains a long shot Kalshi 5%
- Kalshi puts just 5% on any single Fed rate cut exceeding 25 basis points in 2026, resolving via Federal Reserve decision.
- Even as hike bets fade, the market is not pricing a pivot to aggressive easing, a 5% probability on a jumbo cut implies the base case remains steady rates, not a sharp policy reversal.
- This is consistent with the near-term Fed funds ladder holding the upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range, no dramatic cut is priced into any horizon.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decision; requires a single cut of more than 25 basis points at any 2026 FOMC meeting.
- Odds on an outsized Fed cut stay near the floor Kalshi 5%
- Kalshi contract on a Fed cut greater than 25 basis points in 2026 sits at just 5%.
- Business Insider's hike-fade narrative is consistent with no large cut either, the market is pricing a firm hold, not a pivot.
- PCE inflation at 3.7% in June, still well above the 2% target, gives the Fed little cover for aggressive easing.
- The companion Polymarket hike contract at 47% (CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4) creates an asymmetric picture: roughly even chance of a hike, near-zero chance of a big cut.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxlargecut-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxlargecut-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxlargecut-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
"slug": "kxlargecut-26",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"federal-reserve",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"rate-cuts",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 26921,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}