Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | 2027-01-01 | 5.2% | $67 | $27K | A | KXLARGECUT-26 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by more than 25 basis points before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
For example, this market will resolve to Yes if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 50 basis points during one day, non-scheduled meetings are included. The Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January and 25 basis points in March would not be sufficient to resolve this market.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
Federal Reserve committed source
recent wire items
- Odds of an outsized Fed cut this year stay near long-shot levels Kalshi 3%
- Kalshi prices only 3% on the Fed cutting by more than 25 basis points in 2026, a near-zero probability.
- Falling Treasury yields after weak housing data might imply easing, but the Kalshi contract shows markets do not expect any aggressive cut this year.
- The Kalshi 3% on a large cut sits alongside the 82% on the funds rate exceeding 4.0%, a coherent picture: the Fed is seen on hold or hiking, not cutting.
- Resolution via Federal Reserve official policy announcement; the contract fails if any 2026 cut is 25bp or smaller.
- Fed cut above 25 basis points in 2026 stays a long shot Kalshi 3%
- Kalshi puts only 3% odds on the Federal Reserve delivering a rate cut greater than 25 basis points in 2026.
- News highlights mixed signals: cooler CPI and PPI but slow progress to 2% target and hot retail sales; Kalshi pricing is consistent with near-zero chance of aggressive easing.
- At 3%, the contract treats a jumbo cut as essentially off the table for the remainder of 2026, regardless of softer data prints.
- Story 3 notes hot data raised October hike odds; a separate Fed funds ladder (CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3) places the upper bound most likely at 4.0-4.25%, consistent with no large cut.
- Odds on outsized Fed rate cut this year stay near long-shot Kalshi 3%
- The Kalshi contract on a Fed rate cut greater than 25 basis points in 2026 sits at just 3%.
- With PPI at 6.3% and CPI at 3.7%, the inflation backdrop is squarely inconsistent with easing, the market's near-zero cut probability aligns with the data, not against it.
- Warsh's refusal to prejudge meetings leaves the rate path open, but the Kalshi cut contract reflects near-unanimous market conviction that policy moves higher, not lower.
- Resolution via the Federal Reserve's own rate decision makes this a clean binary; any cut above 25bp before year-end resolves YES.
- Odds of a Fed jumbo cut this year stay near zero Kalshi 3%
- Kalshi puts only 3% probability on the Federal Reserve cutting by more than 25 basis points at any remaining 2026 meeting.
- Mixed inflation signals described in the news are consistent with this near-zero pricing: the market sees no catalyst for an aggressive easing pivot.
- With PPI running at 6.3% annually (per Story 2) and core CPI sticky above 2.2% (Kalshi 8% chance of falling below), the data mix argues against cuts entirely, let alone jumbo ones.
- Resolves via official Federal Reserve rate announcement; a surprise emergency cut scenario is the primary tail risk not priced here.
- Rate cut greater than 25 bps this year stays a long shot Kalshi 3%
- The Kalshi prediction market puts only 3% odds on the Fed cutting by more than 25 basis points in 2026.
- Hot CPI briefly spiked rate-hike bets to nearly 50% per CNBC reporting; the Kalshi contract at 3% is fully consistent with a no-cut or hike scenario dominating.
- With PPI also running hot and the Beige Book citing intensifying price pressures, the 3% cut probability effectively prices in near-zero dovish pivot risk for this year.
- Resolution is via the Federal Reserve's own rate decisions; any cut above 25 bps would require a sharp, rapid reversal of current tightening signals.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxlargecut-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxlargecut-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxlargecut-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
"slug": "kxlargecut-26",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"federal-reserve",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"rate-cuts",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 26921,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}