Will any LLM score at least 50% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 50% | 2026-12-31 | 99.0% | — | $3.1K | C | KXLASTEXAM-2…T50 | ||
| ≥ 55% | 2026-12-31 | 95.0% | $479 | $2.5K | C | KXLASTEXAM-2…T55 | ||
| ≥ 60% | 2026-12-31 | 60.0% | — | $1.2K | C | KXLASTEXAM-2…T60 | ||
| ≥ 65% | 2026-12-31 | 39.0% | $10 | $443 | C | KXLASTEXAM-2…T65 | ||
| ≥ 70% | 2026-12-31 | 24.0% | — | $416 | C | KXLASTEXAM-2…T70 | ||
| ≥ 75% | 2026-12-31 | 17.0% | — | $69 | C | KXLASTEXAM-2…T75 | ||
| ≥ 80% | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | — | $41 | C | KXLASTEXAM-2…T80 | ||
| ≥ 85% | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $14 | C | KXLASTEXAM-2…T85 | ||
| ≥ 90% | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $15 | C | KXLASTEXAM-2…T90 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Humanity's Last Exam | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If any language model achieves an accuracy of at least 50% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Humanity's Last Exam" sources (1) · single authority
- Humanity's Last Exam source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxlastexam-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxlastexam-26dec31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxlastexam-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-M5L4WJM110",
"slug": "kxlastexam-26dec31",
"question": "Will any LLM score at least 50% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai-benchmarking",
"llm-capabilities",
"humanities-last-exam",
"2026",
"ai-evaluation"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7826,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 72,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "Humanity's Last Exam",
"resolution_source_url": "https://agi.safe.ai/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Humanity's Last Exam",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Humanity's Last Exam",
"url": "https://agi.safe.ai/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}