Launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026 [ resolves 2026-08-07 (15D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in… | 2026-08-07 | 90.0% | $11 | $1.6K | A | KXLAUNCHES-2…-13 | ||
| How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in… | 2026-08-07 | 80.0% | $1.6K | $7.7K | A | KXLAUNCHES-2…-14 | ||
| How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in… | 2026-08-07 | 31.0% | $825 | $3.4K | A | KXLAUNCHES-2…-15 | ||
| How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in… | 2026-08-07 | 3.0% | — | $196 | A | KXLAUNCHES-2…-16 | ||
| How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in… | 2026-08-07 | 3.0% | — | $197 | A | KXLAUNCHES-2…-17 | ||
| How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in… | 2026-08-07 | 3.0% | $0 | $96 | A | KXLAUNCHES-2…-18 | ||
| How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in… | 2026-08-07 | 4.0% | — | $17 | A | KXLAUNCHES-2…-19 | ||
| How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in… | 2026-08-07 | 6.0% | — | $7 | A | KXLAUNCHES-2…-20 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Aviation Administration | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have Above 13 launches in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
For the purpose of this market, qualifying commercial space launches will be based on the documented count from the FAA Commercial Space Data list during the time period.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Aviation Administration" sources (2) · single authority
- Federal Aviation Administration source of record venue-listed
- FAA Commercial Space Data list from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxlaunches-26jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxlaunches-26jul |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxlaunches-26jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DMVD9W9JK7",
"slug": "kxlaunches-26jul",
"question": "Launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"space-launches",
"commercial-spaceflight",
"july-2026",
"quantitative-outcome",
"technology-infrastructure"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13254,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Aviation Administration",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.faa.gov",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Aviation Administration",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Aviation Administration",
"url": "https://www.faa.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "FAA Commercial Space Data list",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}