Will there be more tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? [ resolves 2027-03-01 (271D) ]

More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

kalshi 1 market

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
≥ 447,000	2027-03-01	88.9%		$1.6K	$27.90M		A	`KXLAYOFFSYIN…000`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	fred.stlouisfed.org	link	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 1 market · share this text

If there are more than 447,000 layoffs in the information sector in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Important information: This market was listed using an incorrect underlying value for tech layoffs in 2025. The correct floor strike is 447,000 layoffs, not 494,000 as currently specified. If the final layoff count falls between those two numbers, we will pay out $1.00 to all traders with an open position as of March 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET. The rulebook variable has been updated accordingly. Trades executed after this time are not eligible for reimbursement.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "fred.stlouisfed.org" ↗

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxlayoffsyinfo-26/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxlayoffsyinfo-26.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxlayoffsyinfo-26")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZTGN9MPFL9",
  "slug": "kxlayoffsyinfo-26",
  "question": "Will there be more tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "tech-layoffs",
    "employment-metrics",
    "2026-economics",
    "year-over-year-comparison",
    "labor-market"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 1,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 27899578,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 86,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "fred.stlouisfed.org",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL#",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →