More white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? [ resolves 2027-03-01 (238D) ]
More white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| More white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025 | 2027-03-01 | 70.0% | $1 | $38K | A | KXLAYOFFSYPB…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | FRED | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the total number of layoffs and discharges in the Professional and Business Services sector during calendar year 2026 is greater than 5,497,000, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will use FRED series JTU540099LDL, “Layoffs and Discharges: Total Nonfarm: Professional and Business Services, Level in Thousands, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted."
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "FRED" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- FRED source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxlayoffsypbs-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxlayoffsypbs-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxlayoffsypbs-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-0QDTY1D1Y1",
"slug": "kxlayoffsypbs-26",
"question": "More white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"employment",
"white-collar-labor",
"layoffs-2026",
"economic-indicators",
"year-over-year-comparison"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 38154,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "FRED",
"resolution_source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL#",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "FRED",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "FRED",
"url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL#",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}