CPI year-over-year maximum, February 2027 [ resolves 2027-02-14 (256D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 3% | 2027-02-14 | 99.9% | — | $76K | A | KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P3 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2027-02-14 | 99.9% | — | $96K | A | KXLCPIMAXYOY…3.5 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2027-02-14 | 97.3% | $973 | $187K | A | KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P4 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2027-02-14 | 63.6% | $1.9K | $79K | A | KXLCPIMAXYOY…4.5 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2027-02-14 | 43.1% | $75 | $31K | A | KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P5 | ||
| ≥ 5.5% | 2027-02-14 | 27.6% | $4 | $5.7K | A | KXLCPIMAXYOY…5.5 | ||
| ≥ 6% | 2027-02-14 | 16.2% | — | $2.5K | A | KXLCPIMAXYOY…6.0 | ||
| ≥ 6.5% | 2027-02-14 | 15.0% | $19 | $722 | A | KXLCPIMAXYOY…6.5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 3% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ recent wire items
- US inflation surge in 2026: Kalshi implied 4.5-5.0%
- Kalshi ladder prices 65% above 4.5% inflation surge threshold and 37% above 5.0%, implying a market-expected range of 4.5-5.0%.
- Rising Treasury yields and bond market inflation warnings are consistent with the ladder's elevated upper-tail pricing above 5.0%.
- April CPI already at 3.8% with energy costs up 17.9% annually narrows the gap to the 4.5% strike significantly.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data; the ladder strikes represent year-over-year CPI thresholds at defined future dates.
- Kalshi inflation surge 2026: 98%; CPI at 3.9%
- Kalshi prices 98% probability of an inflation surge in 2026.
- CPI year-over-year (FRED) currently at 3.9%.
- Near-certainty pricing with CPI already close to typical 'surge' thresholds.
- Resolves against CPI benchmark for 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxlcpimaxyoy-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxlcpimaxyoy-27.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxlcpimaxyoy-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-H50NT0MZ04",
"slug": "kxlcpimaxyoy-27",
"question": "CPI year-over-year maximum, February 2027",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"inflation",
"macroeconomics",
"price-levels",
"2026",
"economic-indicators"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 476719,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}