CPI year-over-year maximum, February 2027 [ resolves 2027-02-28 (208D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 3% | 2027-02-28 | 99.9% | — | $76K | A | KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P3 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2027-02-28 | 99.9% | — | $96K | A | KXLCPIMAXYOY…3.5 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2027-02-28 | 99.9% | — | $216K | A | KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P4 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2027-02-28 | 28.9% | $412 | $69K | A | KXLCPIMAXYOY…4.5 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2027-02-28 | 18.7% | $38 | $17K | A | KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P5 | ||
| ≥ 5.5% | 2027-02-28 | 13.1% | $27 | $4.5K | A | KXLCPIMAXYOY…5.5 | ||
| ≥ 6% | 2027-02-28 | 11.0% | — | $2.2K | A | KXLCPIMAXYOY…6.0 | ||
| ≥ 6.5% | 2027-02-28 | 13.0% | — | $823 | A | KXLCPIMAXYOY…6.5 | ||
| ≥ 7% | 2027-02-28 | 12.0% | — | $37 | A | KXLCPIMAXYOY…7.0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 4% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
Bureau of Labor Statistics committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Inflation surge in 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-10 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Inflation surge in 2026 stays a long shot, market unconvinced Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices 77% that the inflation surge metric stays below 4.5%, with only 3% at the 7.0% strike, tail risk seen as minimal.
- The news flags a new PCE methodology expected to shave the measured core rate lower, which is consistent with a market that is not pricing a severe inflation breakout.
- Bond market repricing last week, with the 30-year Treasury at 5.44%, contrasts with the Kalshi ladder's relaxed inflation-surge distribution, rates and inflation markets are telling different stories.
- Resolution source unspecified; if tied to CPI-U year-over-year, a 4.5% threshold would require a significant acceleration from current levels, which the market is heavily discounting.
- Inflation surge odds stay near long-shot territory in 2026 Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder puts 25% on inflation reaching 4.5%, dropping to 18% at 5.0%, 6% at 5.5%, and 3-5% above that, keeping a sharp surge a long shot.
- Strong September PMI data and rising input costs reported this week are consistent with upside inflation risk, but the market is not pricing a runaway scenario.
- The ladder's sharp probability decay above 4.5% implies the market sees the current elevated environment as a plateau, not a new acceleration.
- Resolution mechanics and the named source are unspecified; traders should note that the strike definitions (e.g. which index, which month) determine precise settlement.
- Inflation surge in 2026 above 4.5 percent nears pricing out Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies peak 2026 inflation likely stays below 4.5%, with only 25% probability above that level; 20% above 5.0%; 11% above 5.5%.
- PCE at 4.1% year-over-year is consistent with the ladder's modal outcome just below the 4.5% strike, with markets not yet pricing a further surge.
- The Fed funds ladder (event CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3) puts the upper bound at roughly 3.75-4.0%, well below current 4.25-4.50%, suggesting markets see rate cuts before inflation breaks higher.
- Ladder resolves via unnamed source; the distribution's thin tail above 5.0% implies markets treat current PCE levels as a near-plateau, not a re-acceleration.
- Inflation surge above 4.5 percent consensus wavers at low odds Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices only 24% chance inflation exceeds 4.5%, implying the market sees the 3-year high as a ceiling, not a floor.
- PCE hitting a 3-year high at 4.1% is consistent with the ladder's implied range below 4.5%, as the market does not anticipate a further surge.
- The distribution collapses sharply above 5.0% (21%) and 5.5% (11%), signaling the market sees only a thin tail of runaway inflation scenarios.
- Resolves via the named inflation data series; the market-implied peak sits just below 4.5%, with sharp drop-off above 5.0%.
- Inflation surge to 4.5-5 percent in 2026 nears majority pricing Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi's inflation surge ladder implies a market-consensus peak in the 4.50-5.00% range, with 64% above 4.50% and 43% above 5.00%.
- Iran-driven gas price spikes and blowout jobs data are consistent with this distribution sitting well above the 4.00% strike at 97%.
- The 4.00% strike at 97% means the market has near-fully priced inflation clearing that headline threshold, matching the CPI preview narrative.
- Resolves via CPI data; the 43% probability above 5.00% is the tail risk that would most surprise bond and equity markets.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxlcpimaxyoy-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxlcpimaxyoy-27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxlcpimaxyoy-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-H50NT0MZ04",
"slug": "kxlcpimaxyoy-27",
"question": "CPI year-over-year maximum, February 2027",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"inflation",
"us-economy",
"2026",
"macroeconomic-indicator",
"price-levels"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 481514,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}