CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,450 EVENTS / ~20,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Which leaders will leave office in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 37 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Viktor Orbán leave Prime Minister of Hungary 2027-01-01 99.8%
$106K
C KXLEADERSOUT…HUN
Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia 2027-01-01 96.0%
$54 $167K
C KXLEADERSOUT…COL
Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom 2027-01-01 79.0%
$1.7K $347K
C KXLEADERSOUT…AUK
Miguel Díaz-Canel leave First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba 2027-01-01 60.0%
$732 $350K
C KXLEADERSOUT…CPC
Christopher Luxon leave Prime Minister of New Zealand 2027-01-01 53.0%
$5.2K
C KXLEADERSOUT…MNZ
Benjamin Netanyahu leave Prime Minister of Israel 2027-01-01 43.0%
$1.2K $141K
C KXLEADERSOUT…ISR
Pedro Sánchez leave Prime Minister of Spain 2027-01-01 28.0%
$7.6K
C KXLEADERSOUT…NPM
Aleksandar Vučić leave President of Serbia 2027-01-01 24.0%
$2.9K
C KXLEADERSOUT…SER
Rodrigo Paz Pereira leave President of Bolivia 2027-01-01 18.0%
$736
C KXLEADERSOUT…BOL
Volodymyr Zelenskyy leave President of Ukraine 2027-01-01 14.0%
$0 $14K
C KXLEADERSOUT…UKR
Cyril Ramaphosa leave President of South Africa 2027-01-01 14.0%
$772
C KXLEADERSOUT…AFR
Giorgia Meloni leave Prime Minister of Italy 2027-01-01 13.0%
$750
C KXLEADERSOUT…ITA
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leave President of Brazil 2027-01-01 13.0%
$5.1K
C KXLEADERSOUT…BRA
Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany 2027-01-01 13.0%
$1.9K
C KXLEADERSOUT…GER
Delcy Rodriguez leave Acting President of Venezuela 2027-01-01 13.0%
$5 $2.0K
C KXLEADERSOUT…PRE
Denis Sassou Nguesso leave President of the Republic of the Congo 2027-01-01 12.0%
$115
C KXLEADERSOUT…DRC
Félix Tshisekedi leave President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2027-01-01 11.0%
$63
C KXLEADERSOUT…DRC
Mette Frederiksen leave Prime Minister of Denmark 2027-01-01 11.0%
$55 $1.3K
C KXLEADERSOUT…PMD
Ramzan Kadyrov leave Head of the Chechen Republic 2027-01-01 11.0%
$50
C KXLEADERSOUT…HEC
Vladimir Putin leave President of Russia 2027-01-01 10.0%
$94 $46K
C KXLEADERSOUT…RUS
Sanae Takaichi leave Prime Minister of Japan 2027-01-01 10.0%
$0 $3.8K
C KXLEADERSOUT…JAP
Ahmad al-Sharaa leave President of Syria 2027-01-01 10.0%
$2.4K
C KXLEADERSOUT…SYR
Jens-Frederik Nielsen leave Prime Minister of Greenland 2027-01-01 9.9%
$906
C KXLEADERSOUT…PMG
Emmanuel Macron leave President of France 2027-01-01 9.8%
$165 $5.9K
C KXLEADERSOUT…FRA
Lee Jae Myung leave President of South Korea 2027-01-01 6.6%
$360
C KXLEADERSOUT…KOR
Daniel Noboa leave President of Ecuador 2027-01-01 6.5%
$60
C KXLEADERSOUT…CUA
Claudia Sheinbaum leave President of Mexico 2027-01-01 6.0%
$0 $8.6K
C KXLEADERSOUT…MEX
Irfaan Ali leave President of Guyana 2027-01-01 5.8%
$25
C KXLEADERSOUT…GUY
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan leave President of Türkiye 2027-01-01 5.2%
$990
C KXLEADERSOUT…TUR
Javier Milei leave President of Argentina 2027-01-01 5.1%
$195
C KXLEADERSOUT…ARG
Narendra Modi leave Prime Minister of India 2027-01-01 5.0%
$200
C KXLEADERSOUT…IND
Kim Jong Un leave Supreme Leader of North Korea 2027-01-01 5.0%
$1.1K
C KXLEADERSOUT…PRK
Mohammed bin Salman leave Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia 2027-01-01 4.5%
$2 $197
C KXLEADERSOUT…ARA
Mark Carney leave Prime Minister of Canada 2027-01-01 4.0%
$453
C KXLEADERSOUT…CAN
Xi Jinping leave General Secretary of the Communist Party of China 2027-01-01 3.2%
$21K
C KXLEADERSOUT…CHI
Nayib Bukele leave President of El Salvador 2027-01-01 1.1%
$63
C KXLEADERSOUT…LSA
Frederik X leave King of Denmark 2027-01-01 1.1%
$42
C KXLEADERSOUT…XKD
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff The Washington Post not provided Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 37 markets · share this text
If Benjamin Netanyahu has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of Israel or has actually left Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes. "Leaving office" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do NOT constitute leaving office. Death does NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion for this Contract. Forced departures (termination, impeachment and removal, etc.) satisfy the Payout Criterion even without a prior announcement.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Washington Post"
sources (18)
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
YES Will Viktor Orbán leave Prime Minister of Hungary before Jan 1, 2027? kalshi 2027-01-01 100%
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxleadersout-27jan01/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxleadersout-27jan01
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxleadersout-27jan01")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y6NB8WH229",
  "slug": "kxleadersout-27jan01",
  "question": "Which leaders will leave office in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "political-transitions",
    "leadership-changes",
    "2027-resolution",
    "executive-office",
    "global-politics"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 37,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 1246284,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 43,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Fox News",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "MSNBC",
      "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Semafor",
      "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Information",
      "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "ABC",
      "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "NBC",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Axios",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "official government websites relevant to ",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "office or organization where  holds ",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNN",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CBS",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bloomberg News",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →