Which leaders will leave office in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 37 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Orbán leave Prime Minister of Hungary | 2027-01-01 | 99.8% | — | $106K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…HUN | ||
| Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia | 2027-01-01 | 96.0% | $54 | $167K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…COL | ||
| Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | 2027-01-01 | 79.0% | $1.7K | $347K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…AUK | ||
| Miguel Díaz-Canel leave First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba | 2027-01-01 | 60.0% | $732 | $350K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…CPC | ||
| Christopher Luxon leave Prime Minister of New Zealand | 2027-01-01 | 53.0% | — | $5.2K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…MNZ | ||
| Benjamin Netanyahu leave Prime Minister of Israel | 2027-01-01 | 43.0% | $1.2K | $141K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…ISR | ||
| Pedro Sánchez leave Prime Minister of Spain | 2027-01-01 | 28.0% | — | $7.6K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…NPM | ||
| Aleksandar Vučić leave President of Serbia | 2027-01-01 | 24.0% | — | $2.9K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…SER | ||
| Rodrigo Paz Pereira leave President of Bolivia | 2027-01-01 | 18.0% | — | $736 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…BOL | ||
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy leave President of Ukraine | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | $0 | $14K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…UKR | ||
| Cyril Ramaphosa leave President of South Africa | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | — | $772 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…AFR | ||
| Giorgia Meloni leave Prime Minister of Italy | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $750 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…ITA | ||
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leave President of Brazil | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $5.1K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…BRA | ||
| Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $1.9K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…GER | ||
| Delcy Rodriguez leave Acting President of Venezuela | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | $5 | $2.0K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…PRE | ||
| Denis Sassou Nguesso leave President of the Republic of the Congo | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | — | $115 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…DRC | ||
| Félix Tshisekedi leave President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $63 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…DRC | ||
| Mette Frederiksen leave Prime Minister of Denmark | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | $55 | $1.3K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…PMD | ||
| Ramzan Kadyrov leave Head of the Chechen Republic | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $50 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…HEC | ||
| Vladimir Putin leave President of Russia | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | $94 | $46K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…RUS | ||
| Sanae Takaichi leave Prime Minister of Japan | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | $0 | $3.8K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…JAP | ||
| Ahmad al-Sharaa leave President of Syria | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | — | $2.4K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…SYR | ||
| Jens-Frederik Nielsen leave Prime Minister of Greenland | 2027-01-01 | 9.9% | — | $906 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…PMG | ||
| Emmanuel Macron leave President of France | 2027-01-01 | 9.8% | $165 | $5.9K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…FRA | ||
| Lee Jae Myung leave President of South Korea | 2027-01-01 | 6.6% | — | $360 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…KOR | ||
| Daniel Noboa leave President of Ecuador | 2027-01-01 | 6.5% | — | $60 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…CUA | ||
| Claudia Sheinbaum leave President of Mexico | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | $0 | $8.6K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…MEX | ||
| Irfaan Ali leave President of Guyana | 2027-01-01 | 5.8% | — | $25 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…GUY | ||
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan leave President of Türkiye | 2027-01-01 | 5.2% | — | $990 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…TUR | ||
| Javier Milei leave President of Argentina | 2027-01-01 | 5.1% | — | $195 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…ARG | ||
| Narendra Modi leave Prime Minister of India | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | — | $200 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…IND | ||
| Kim Jong Un leave Supreme Leader of North Korea | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | — | $1.1K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…PRK | ||
| Mohammed bin Salman leave Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia | 2027-01-01 | 4.5% | $2 | $197 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…ARA | ||
| Mark Carney leave Prime Minister of Canada | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | — | $453 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…CAN | ||
| Xi Jinping leave General Secretary of the Communist Party of China | 2027-01-01 | 3.2% | — | $21K | C | KXLEADERSOUT…CHI | ||
| Nayib Bukele leave President of El Salvador | 2027-01-01 | 1.1% | — | $63 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…LSA | ||
| Frederik X leave King of Denmark | 2027-01-01 | 1.1% | — | $42 | C | KXLEADERSOUT…XKD |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Washington Post | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Benjamin Netanyahu has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of Israel or has actually left Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes.
"Leaving office" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do NOT constitute leaving office. Death does NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion for this Contract. Forced departures (termination, impeachment and removal, etc.) satisfy the Payout Criterion even without a prior announcement.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Washington Post" sources (18)
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- ABC venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- NBC venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
- official government websites relevant to <office> venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- office or organization where <person> holds <office> venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Viktor Orbán leave Prime Minister of Hungary before Jan 1, 2027? | kalshi | 2027-01-01 | 100% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxleadersout-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxleadersout-27jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxleadersout-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Y6NB8WH229",
"slug": "kxleadersout-27jan01",
"question": "Which leaders will leave office in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"political-transitions",
"leadership-changes",
"2027-resolution",
"executive-office",
"global-politics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 37,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1246284,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 43,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
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},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
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{
"name": "the Associated Press",
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{
"name": "NBC",
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},
{
"name": "Axios",
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},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
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}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
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"tags": {
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},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
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"venues_covered": {
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}
}
}