Will any member leave Congress before July? [ resolved 2026-07-08 ]

Will Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick be out as House member before July 2026?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 10 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Ruben Gallego be out as House member	2026-07-01	0.0%	$5	$898	A	`KXLEAVEHOUSE…GAL`
Ro Khanna be out as House member	2026-07-01	0.0%	$7	$780	A	`KXLEAVEHOUSE…KHA`
Henry Cuellar be out as House member	2026-07-01	0.0%	—	$22	A	`KXLEAVEHOUSE…CUE`
Nancy Mace be out as House member	2026-07-01	0.0%	—	$210	A	`KXLEAVEHOUSE…MAC`
Mike Collins be out as House member	2026-07-01	0.0%	—	$14	A	`KXLEAVEHOUSE…COL`
Mitch McConnell be out as Senator	2026-07-01	0.0%	$1	$87	A	`KXLEAVEHOUSE…MCC`
Nancy Pelosi be out as House member	2026-07-01	0.0%	—	$27	A	`KXLEAVEHOUSE…PEL`
Cory Mills be out as House member	2026-07-01	0.0%	$5	$2.4K	A	`KXLEAVEHOUSE…MIL`
Chuck Edwards be out as U.S. House member	2026-07-01	0.0%	—	$140	A	`KXLEAVEHOUSE…EDW`
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick be out as House member	2026-07-08	99.0%	—	$5.6K	A	`KXLEAVEHOUSE…CHE`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	person	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 10 markets · share this text

If Ruben Gallego leaves as Senator before July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Ruben Gallego must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to "No." For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "person"

sources (12) · single authority

person venue-listed
The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
Bloomberg News venue-listed
The Washington Post venue-listed
the Associated Press venue-listed
Fox News venue-listed
Reuters venue-listed
official government records and registries source of record venue-listed
the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held venue-listed
CNN venue-listed
the New York Times venue-listed
Politico venue-listed

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
YES	Will Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick be out as House member before July 2026?	kalshi	`2026-07-08`	`99%`
NO	Will Ruben Gallego be out as House member before July 2026?	kalshi	`2026-07-01`	`0%`
NO	Will Ro Khanna be out as House member before July 2026?	kalshi	`2026-07-01`	`0%`
NO	Will Henry Cuellar be out as House member before July 2026?	kalshi	`2026-07-01`	`0%`
NO	Will Nancy Mace be out as House member before July 2026?	kalshi	`2026-07-01`	`0%`
NO	Will Mike Collins be out as House member before July 2026?	kalshi	`2026-07-01`	`0%`
NO	Will Mitch McConnell be out as Senator before July 2026?	kalshi	`2026-07-01`	`0%`
NO	Will Nancy Pelosi be out as House member before July 2026?	kalshi	`2026-07-01`	`0%`
NO	Will Cory Mills be out as House member before July 2026?	kalshi	`2026-07-01`	`0%`
NO	Will Chuck Edwards be out as U.S. House member before July 2026?	kalshi	`2026-07-01`	`0%`

Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (10 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxleavehouse-26apr/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxleavehouse-26apr`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxleavehouse-26apr")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4LVJ37THS8",
  "slug": "kxleavehouse-26apr",
  "question": "Will any member leave Congress before July?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "congress-departures",
    "us-politics",
    "2026",
    "house-and-senate",
    "political-transitions"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 10,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 10175,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "person",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "official government records and registries",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "person",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bloomberg News",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Fox News",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "official government records and registries",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNN",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →