Will Keir Starmer's departure as UK Prime Minister be announced by December 31, 2025? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]
Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Sep 1, 2026?
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Sep 1, 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 59.0% | $157 | $167K | B | KXLEAVESTARM…P01 | ||
| Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Aug 1, 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 35.0% | $264 | $8.2K | B | KXLEAVESTARM…G01 | ||
| Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jul 1, 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | $1.2K | $115K | B | KXLEAVESTARM…L01 | ||
| Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Apr 1, 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $3.7K | B | KXLEAVESTARM…R01 | ||
| Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before May 1, 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $409 | B | KXLEAVESTARM…Y01 | ||
| Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before May 15, 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $2.0K | B | KXLEAVESTARM…Y15 | ||
| Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before May 19, 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $1.0K | B | KXLEAVESTARM…Y19 | ||
| Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jun 1, 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $6.0K | B | KXLEAVESTARM…N01 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Washington Post | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Keir Starmer has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom or has actually left as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Apr 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes.
"Leaving office" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do NOT constitute leaving office. Death does NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion for this Contract. Forced departures (termination, impeachment and removal, etc.) satisfy the Payout Criterion even without a prior announcement.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Washington Post" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxleavestarmer/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxleavestarmer.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxleavestarmer") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-N27Z8YYRT3",
"slug": "kxleavestarmer",
"question": "Will Keir Starmer's departure as UK Prime Minister be announced by December 31, 2025?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"uk-politics",
"leadership-change",
"starmer",
"prime-minister",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 304078,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 71,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}