Will the best AI system in June 2026 be determined by a specific benchmark or evaluation? [ resolves 2026-06-30 (27D) ]

Best AI in Jun 2026?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date

kalshi 6 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Best AI in Jun 2026	2026-06-30	84.0%	$7.5K	$19K	A	`KXLLM1-26JUN30-A`
Best AI in Jun 2026	2026-06-30	16.0%	$374	$835	A	`KXLLM1-26JUN…OOG`
Best AI in Jun 2026	2026-06-30	6.0%	$160	$270	A	`KXLLM1-26JUN30-OAI`
Best AI in Jun 2026	2026-06-30	1.0%	—	$36	A	`KXLLM1-26JUN30-XAI`
Best AI in Jun 2026	2026-06-30	1.0%	—	$1	A	`KXLLM1-26JUN…ETA`
Best AI in Jun 2026	2026-06-30	1.0%	—	$1	A	`KXLLM1-26JUN30-ALI`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)	link	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 6 markets · share this text

If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)" ↗

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxllm1-26jun30/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxllm1-26jun30.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxllm1-26jun30")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-P9PQ3YTRF6",
  "slug": "kxllm1-26jun30",
  "question": "Will the best AI system in June 2026 be determined by a specific benchmark or evaluation?",
  "category": "technology",
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "artificial-intelligence",
    "ai-models",
    "technology-2026",
    "comparative-ranking",
    "near-term-prediction"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 6,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 19656,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 82,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →