How many Senate Democrats will lose their primary in 2026? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (120D) ]

kalshi: [B] reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 5 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Exactly 0	2026-11-03	70.0%	—	$27K	B	`KXLOSEPRIMAR…3-0`
Exactly 1	2026-11-03	19.0%	$1	$5.2K	B	`KXLOSEPRIMAR…3-1`
Exactly 2	2026-11-03	5.0%	$1	$866	B	`KXLOSEPRIMAR…3-2`
Exactly 3	2026-11-03	1.5%	—	$308	B	`KXLOSEPRIMAR…3-3`
At least 4	2026-11-03	1.0%	—	$172	B	`KXLOSEPRIMAR…3-4`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	ABC	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 5 markets · share this text

If the number of Democratic Senate members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 03, 2026 is exactly 0, then the market resolves to Yes. To be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; and lose the Democratic primary for that election to another candidate. In jurisdictions with non-partisan or "top-two" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates. For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the "office they currently hold" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency. In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC"

sources (15) · single authority

ABC venue-listed
Fox News venue-listed
MSNBC venue-listed
The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
Semafor venue-listed
The Information venue-listed
CBS venue-listed
The New York Times venue-listed
Federal Register source of record venue-listed
The Washington Post venue-listed
Axios venue-listed
CNN venue-listed
Reuters venue-listed
the Associated Press venue-listed
Politico venue-listed

recent wire items

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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxloseprimarysenated-26nov03/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxloseprimarysenated-26nov03`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxloseprimarysenated-26nov03")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-F6SV5D4KR0",
  "slug": "kxloseprimarysenated-26nov03",
  "question": "How many Senate Democrats will lose their primary in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-senate-2026",
    "democratic-primary",
    "primary-election",
    "us-politics",
    "incumbent-vulnerability"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 5,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 33601,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 73,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "ABC",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Federal Register",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "ABC",
      "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Fox News",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "MSNBC",
      "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Semafor",
      "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Information",
      "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CBS",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Federal Register",
      "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/agencies",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Axios",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNN",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →