How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 0 | 2026-12-31 | 73.0% | — | $14K | A | KXLOSEREELEC…6-0 | ||
| Exactly 1 | 2026-12-31 | 27.0% | — | $5.1K | A | KXLOSEREELEC…6-1 | ||
| Exactly 2 | 2026-12-31 | 4.3% | — | $233 | A | KXLOSEREELEC…6-2 | ||
| Exactly 3 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | $13 | $127 | A | KXLOSEREELEC…6-3 | ||
| Exactly 4 | 2026-12-31 | 2.6% | — | $87 | A | KXLOSEREELEC…6-4 | ||
| At least 5 | 2026-12-31 | 2.5% | — | $113 | A | KXLOSEREELEC…6-5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the Senate Parliamentarian | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If exactly 0 members of the Senate Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members against each other, the loser counts. Members who switch parties after issuance remain part of the original group. If a member loses their party primary but wins as an independent, they did not lose re-election.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the Senate Parliamentarian" ↗ sources (16) · single authority
the Senate Parliamentarian committed source NBC venue-listed official state or local election division websites venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed ABC venue-listed New York Times venue-listed Ballotpedia venue-listed the Clerk of the House of Representatives venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed The Washington Post venue-listed CNN venue-listed Fox News venue-listed Politico venue-listed CBS venue-listed the Secretary of the Senate venue-listed Bloomberg News venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxlosereelectiondsen-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxlosereelectiondsen-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxlosereelectiondsen-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-WMLFV8QQ16",
"slug": "kxlosereelectiondsen-2026",
"question": "How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate",
"2026-elections",
"democratic-losses",
"political-outcomes",
"election-results"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 19870,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 82,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "the Senate Parliamentarian",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.senate.gov/legislative/parliamentarian.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "the Senate Parliamentarian",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the Senate Parliamentarian",
"url": "https://www.senate.gov/legislative/parliamentarian.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official state or local election division websites",
"url": "https://www.vote.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Ballotpedia",
"url": "https://ballotpedia.org",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Clerk of the House of Representatives",
"url": "https://clerk.house.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Secretary of the Senate",
"url": "https://www.senate.gov/reference/reference_index/secretary_of_the_senate.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}