Will at least one Democratic Senator lose reelection in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]

kalshi: [A] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by strike

kalshi 6 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
0	2026-12-31	73.0%	—	$7.2K	A	`KXLOSEREELEC…6-0`
1	2026-12-31	19.0%	—	$2.0K	A	`KXLOSEREELEC…6-1`
2	2026-12-31	3.1%	—	$147	A	`KXLOSEREELEC…6-2`
3	2026-12-31	4.4%	—	$200	A	`KXLOSEREELEC…6-3`
4	2026-12-31	2.0%	—	$47	A	`KXLOSEREELEC…6-4`
≥ 5	2026-12-31	4.6%	—	$173	A	`KXLOSEREELEC…6-5`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	the Senate Parliamentarian	link	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 6 markets · share this text

If exactly 0 members of the Senate Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members against each other, the loser counts. Members who switch parties after issuance remain part of the original group. If a member loses their party primary but wins as an independent, they did not lose re-election.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "the Senate Parliamentarian" ↗

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxlosereelectiondsen-2026/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxlosereelectiondsen-2026.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxlosereelectiondsen-2026")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-WMLFV8QQ16",
  "slug": "kxlosereelectiondsen-2026",
  "question": "Will at least one Democratic Senator lose reelection in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-senate",
    "2026-elections",
    "democratic-losses",
    "political-outcomes",
    "election-results"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 6,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 9843,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 85,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "the Senate Parliamentarian",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.senate.gov/legislative/parliamentarian.htm",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →