How many Republican senators will lose reelection in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]

kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 6 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Exactly 0	2026-12-31	0.1%	—	$7	A	`KXLOSEREELEC…6-0`
Exactly 1	2026-12-31	2.0%	—	$115	A	`KXLOSEREELEC…6-1`
Exactly 2	2026-12-31	9.0%	—	$470	A	`KXLOSEREELEC…6-2`
Exactly 3	2026-12-31	24.0%	—	$1.2K	A	`KXLOSEREELEC…6-3`
Exactly 4	2026-12-31	21.0%	—	$2.4K	A	`KXLOSEREELEC…6-4`
At least 5	2026-12-31	34.0%	—	$5.4K	A	`KXLOSEREELEC…6-5`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	the Senate Parliamentarian	link	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 6 markets · share this text

If exactly 0 members of the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members against each other, the loser counts. Members who switch parties after issuance remain part of the original group. If a member loses their party primary but wins as an independent, they did not lose re-election.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "the Senate Parliamentarian" ↗

sources (16) · single authority

the Senate Parliamentarian venue-listed
NBC venue-listed
official state or local election division websites source of record venue-listed
The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
ABC venue-listed
New York Times venue-listed
Ballotpedia venue-listed
the Clerk of the House of Representatives venue-listed
the Associated Press venue-listed
The Washington Post venue-listed
CNN venue-listed
Fox News venue-listed
Politico venue-listed
CBS venue-listed
the Secretary of the Senate venue-listed
Bloomberg News venue-listed

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
NO	Will exactly 0 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026?	kalshi	`2026-12-31`	`0%`
NO	Will exactly 1 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026?	kalshi	`2026-12-31`	`2%`

Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

2026-07-03T04:02:57.000Z momentum-repricing
Five or more Senate Republicans losing re-election wavers below coin flip Kalshi 39%
- The Kalshi prediction market puts 39% on at least five Senate Republicans losing re-election in 2026.
- Trump's success in installing loyalist candidates may boost primary turnout but introduces general-election vulnerability, the 39% reading reflects genuine uncertainty about that tradeoff.
- Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-RSPZ64CMS2 prices 92% on more than some threshold of Republicans losing their primary, suggesting primary disruption is near-fully priced while general-election losses remain contested.
- Kalshi contract resolves via the Senate Parliamentarian's certification of election results; the threshold of exactly five seats is a precise trigger that makes near-miss scenarios material to settlement.
2026-07-03T04:02:57.000Z momentum-repricing
Senate Republican re-election losses at five or more fractures near even odds Kalshi 44%
- Kalshi prediction market prices 44% that at least five Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026.
- Trump's candidate interventions are a double-edged signal -- loyalists may underperform in swing states -- and the near-coin-flip pricing reflects that uncertainty.
- Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-RSPZ64CMS2 prices 92% that more than some threshold of Senate Republicans lose their primary, suggesting primary volatility is nearly fully priced while general-election risk is not.
- Resolves via the Senate Parliamentarian's certification of 2026 Senate election results.
2026-07-03T04:02:57.000Z momentum-repricing
Senate Republican re-election losses consensus wavers near 38% Kalshi 38%
- Kalshi prices a 38% probability that at least 5 Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026, resolved via the Senate Parliamentarian.
- Trading volume on this Kalshi contract surged 23,617% day over day, reflecting intense fresh interest following the Trump Senate candidate story.
- At 38%, the market treats mass Republican Senate losses as a minority but meaningful risk, not a base case despite Trump's aggressive reshaping of the field.
- A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-RSPZ64CMS2) sits at 97% for a lower threshold of Senate Republican primary losses, revealing the market separates primary disruption from general election defeat.
2026-07-01T10:04:10.155Z momentum-repricing
GOP Senate re-election loss threshold holds below even money after ruling Kalshi 44%
- Kalshi prediction market prices 44% that at least five Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026, below even money despite a ruling expanding party spending.
- The Supreme Court decision removing party spending caps could benefit incumbents, but the market remains near a coin flip on the loss threshold.
- The ruling came July 1 in National Republican Senatorial Committee v. FEC; the market's sub-50% pricing suggests it has absorbed the news without moving to favor incumbents decisively.
- Resolves via the Senate Parliamentarian's certification of 2026 general election results.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxlosereelectionrsen-2026/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxlosereelectionrsen-2026`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxlosereelectionrsen-2026")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-39Y2BB24Y8",
  "slug": "kxlosereelectionrsen-2026",
  "question": "How many Republican senators will lose reelection in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-senate",
    "2026-elections",
    "republican-party",
    "electoral-outcomes",
    "political-forecasting"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 6,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 9679,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 100,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "the Senate Parliamentarian",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.senate.gov/legislative/parliamentarian.htm",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "official state or local election division websites",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "the Senate Parliamentarian",
      "url": "https://www.senate.gov/legislative/parliamentarian.htm",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "NBC",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "official state or local election division websites",
      "url": "https://www.vote.gov/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "ABC",
      "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Ballotpedia",
      "url": "https://ballotpedia.org",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Clerk of the House of Representatives",
      "url": "https://clerk.house.gov/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNN",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Fox News",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CBS",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Secretary of the Senate",
      "url": "https://www.senate.gov/reference/reference_index/secretary_of_the_senate.htm",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bloomberg News",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →