Will the lowest temperature in Las Vegas on July 23, 2026 be below 70°F? [ resolved 2026-07-24 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <80° | 2026-07-24 | 0.0% | $0 | $0 | A | KXLOWTLV-26J…T80 | ||
| 80-81° | 2026-07-24 | 0.0% | $0 | $1 | A | KXLOWTLV-26J…0.5 | ||
| 82-83° | 2026-07-24 | 0.0% | $1 | $2 | A | KXLOWTLV-26J…2.5 | ||
| 84-85° | 2026-07-24 | 0.0% | $1 | $2 | A | KXLOWTLV-26J…4.5 | ||
| >87° | 2026-07-24 | 100.0% | $4.9K | $5.1K | A | KXLOWTLV-26J…T87 | ||
| 86-87° | 2026-07-24 | 0.0% | $3 | $6 | A | KXLOWTLV-26J…6.5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | NWS Climatological Report Las Vegas | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the minimum temperature recorded at Las Vegas for Jul 23, 2026, is less than 80° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Data for CLILAS can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=vef, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Las Vegas, NV" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
Not all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above. Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "NWS Climatological Report Las Vegas" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
- NWS Climatological Report Las Vegas venue-listed
- National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily) source of record from rules text · editorial
- NWS Climatological Report from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the minimum temperature be <80° on Jul 23, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-24 | 0% |
| NO | Will the minimum temperature be 80-81° on Jul 23, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-24 | 0% |
| NO | Will the minimum temperature be 82-83° on Jul 23, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-24 | 0% |
| NO | Will the minimum temperature be 84-85° on Jul 23, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-24 | 0% |
| NO | Will the minimum temperature be 86-87° on Jul 23, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-24 | 0% |
| YES | Will the minimum temperature be >87° on Jul 23, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-24 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (6 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxlowtlv-26jul23/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxlowtlv-26jul23 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxlowtlv-26jul23") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3F9RFGG6J1",
"slug": "kxlowtlv-26jul23",
"question": "Will the lowest temperature in Las Vegas on July 23, 2026 be below 70°F?",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"temperature-forecast",
"las-vegas",
"weather",
"2026",
"summer-heat"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5086,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 97,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "NWS Climatological Report Las Vegas",
"resolution_source_url": "https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=VEF&product=CLI&issuedby=LAS",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "NWS Climatological Report Las Vegas",
"url": "https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=VEF&product=CLI&issuedby=LAS",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NWS Climatological Report",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}