Who will win the Greater Manchester mayoral election? [ resolves 2027-07-30 (372D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 2027-07-30 | 96.0% | $1 | $15K | C | KXMANCHESTER…LAB | ||
| Reform UK | 2027-07-30 | 2.0% | — | $148 | C | KXMANCHESTER…REF | ||
| Green | 2027-07-30 | 1.0% | — | $98 | C | KXMANCHESTER…GRE | ||
| Conservative | 2027-07-30 | 1.0% | $5 | $97 | C | KXMANCHESTER…CON | ||
| Liberal Democrats | 2027-07-30 | 1.0% | — | $67 | C | KXMANCHESTER…LIB | ||
| Restore Britain | 2027-07-30 | 1.0% | — | $87 | C | KXMANCHESTER…RES |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Labour Party wins the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections" sources (3) · stated precedence rule
- or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections venue-listed
- in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission venue-listed
- constitutional court venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmanchestermayor-26jul30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmanchestermayor-26jul30 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmanchestermayor-26jul30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-D86CH5T7L7",
"slug": "kxmanchestermayor-26jul30",
"question": "Who will win the Greater Manchester mayoral election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"greater-manchester",
"mayoral-election",
"uk-politics",
"2027",
"labour-vs-conservatives"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 15632,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "constitutional court",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}