Will the Massachusetts 1st Congressional District Democratic nominee be decided by the 2026 general election? [ resolves 2026-09 – 2026-11 ]
Will Jeromie Whalen be the Democratic nominee for MA-01?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Neal | 2026-09-02 | 100.0% | $142 | $13K | A | KXMAPRIMARY-…NEA | ||
| Jeromie Whalen | 2026-11-03 | 11.0% | $1 | $1.5K | A | KXMAPRIMARY-…WHA | ||
| Anthony Celata | 2026-11-03 | 5.0% | — | $526 | A | KXMAPRIMARY-…CEL | ||
| Nathan Tracy | 2026-11-03 | 5.0% | — | $445 | A | KXMAPRIMARY-…TRA | ||
| Jarret Dewberry | 2026-11-03 | 4.0% | — | $338 | A | KXMAPRIMARY-…DEW |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Richard Neal wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MA-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Richard Neal be the Democratic nominee for MA-01? | kalshi | 2026-09-02 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Fresh volume backs Neal as MA-01 Democratic pick at 99% 99% · $62K 24h
- Kalshi prices Richard Neal at 99% for the MA-01 Democratic nomination, market sees no credible challenger.
- $62K in 24h accounts for 51% of all-time contract volume, a notable mid-cycle concentration.
- Paired with the Lynch MA-08 spike, the session suggests broad repositioning across Massachusetts congressional races.
- Resolves on certification of the MA-01 Democratic primary winner.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmaprimary-01d26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmaprimary-01d26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmaprimary-01d26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FVM9ZNZPY7",
"slug": "kxmaprimary-01d26",
"question": "Will the Massachusetts 1st Congressional District Democratic nominee be decided by the 2026 general election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-politics",
"2027-election",
"democratic-primary",
"massachusetts",
"house-race"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 15931,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 86,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Republican Party",
"url": "https://gop.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Democratic Party",
"url": "https://democrats.org/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}