Will there be a new top Math AI this month? [ resolves 2026-07-31 (8D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top Math AI this month | 2026-07-31 | 95.0% | $114 | $30K | C | KXMATHAI-26J…LAU | ||
| Top Math AI this month | 2026-07-31 | 4.0% | $2 | $601 | C | KXMATHAI-26J…HAT | ||
| Top Math AI this month | 2026-07-31 | 3.0% | $0 | $986 | C | KXMATHAI-26J…EMI | ||
| Top Math AI this month | 2026-07-31 | 3.0% | — | $107 | C | KXMATHAI-26J…IMI | ||
| Top Math AI this month | 2026-07-31 | 1.0% | — | $18 | C | KXMATHAI-26J…WEN | ||
| Top Math AI this month | 2026-07-31 | 1.0% | — | $20 | C | KXMATHAI-26J…IMO | ||
| Top Math AI this month | 2026-07-31 | 1.0% | — | $19 | C | KXMATHAI-26J…INI |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Arena AI Text Arena (Math) | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Claude is the #1 model on Arena AI Text Arena Leaderboard (Math) on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them.
If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Arena AI Text Arena (Math)" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- Arena AI Text Arena (Math) source of record venue-listed
- Arena AI Text Arena Leaderboard (Math) from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmathai-26jul31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmathai-26jul31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmathai-26jul31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-94PHQ11LY0",
"slug": "kxmathai-26jul31",
"question": "Will there be a new top Math AI this month?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"math-ai",
"monthly-ranking",
"technology-performance",
"ai-benchmarks",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 31692,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "Arena AI Text Arena (Math)",
"resolution_source_url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Arena AI Text Arena (Math)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Arena AI Text Arena (Math)",
"url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Arena AI Text Arena Leaderboard (Math)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}