Will the Strait of Hormuz record its highest single-day traffic in July 2026? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-11 ]
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 50 in Jul 2026?
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 2026-07-07 | 100.0% | — | $2.3K | C | KXMAXSHIPSHO…L30 | ||
| 40 | 2026-07-07 | 100.0% | — | $13K | C | KXMAXSHIPSHO…L40 | ||
| 50 | 2026-11-02 | 1.0% | $10 | $754 | C | KXMAXSHIPSHO…L50 | ||
| 60 | 2026-11-02 | 1.0% | $1 | $203 | C | KXMAXSHIPSHO…L60 | ||
| 70 | 2026-11-02 | 1.0% | $2 | $72 | C | KXMAXSHIPSHO…L70 | ||
| 80 | 2026-11-02 | 1.0% | — | $22 | C | KXMAXSHIPSHO…L80 | ||
| 90 | 2026-11-02 | 1.0% | — | $14 | C | KXMAXSHIPSHO…L90 | ||
| 100 | 2026-11-02 | 1.0% | — | $43 | C | KXMAXSHIPSHO…100 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the Statistical Review of World Energy | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 30 in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the Statistical Review of World Energy" sources (2)
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 40 in Jul 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-07 | 100% |
| YES | Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 30 in Jul 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-07 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmaxshipshormuz-26jul31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmaxshipshormuz-26jul31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmaxshipshormuz-26jul31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-S8KTSXKNV9",
"slug": "kxmaxshipshormuz-26jul31",
"question": "Will the Strait of Hormuz record its highest single-day traffic in July 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"strait-of-hormuz",
"maritime-traffic",
"geopolitical-risk",
"middle-east",
"shipping-logistics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 16545,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 62,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "IMF PortWatch",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}