Will James McDonald be confirmed as SDNY U.S. Attorney? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2027-01 ]
Will James McDonald be confirmed as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York before Jul 25, 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | 2026-07-04 | 1.0% | — | $66 | A | KXMCDONALDCO…N27 | ||
| Jul 18, 2026 | 2026-07-25 | 2.0% | — | $61 | A | KXMCDONALDCO…L18 | ||
| Jul 25, 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 44.0% | — | $1.2K | A | KXMCDONALDCO…L25 | ||
| Aug 8, 2026 | 2026-08-15 | 2.0% | $0 | $37 | A | KXMCDONALDCO…G08 | ||
| Oct 1, 2026 | 2026-10-08 | 3.0% | — | $48 | A | KXMCDONALDCO…T01 | ||
| Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-08 | 90.0% | — | $3.6K | A | KXMCDONALDCO…N01 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | U.S. Senate | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If James McDonald is the first person confirmed as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York before Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If a nomination is withdrawn before the deadline, that market immediately resolves to No.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "U.S. Senate" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- U.S. Senate source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will James McDonald be confirmed as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York before Jul 18, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-18 | 2% |
| NO | Will James McDonald be confirmed as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York before Jun 27, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-27 | 1% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmcdonaldconf-26jun17/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmcdonaldconf-26jun17 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmcdonaldconf-26jun17") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BV7SMYXT42",
"slug": "kxmcdonaldconf-26jun17",
"question": "Will James McDonald be confirmed as SDNY U.S. Attorney?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-attorney-confirmation",
"sdny-appointment",
"judicial-nominations",
"senate-confirmation",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5062,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "U.S. Senate",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.rules.senate.gov/rules-of-the-senate",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "U.S. Senate",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "U.S. Senate",
"url": "https://www.rules.senate.gov/rules-of-the-senate",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}