Will the MD-05 Democratic nominee be determined by the 2026 election? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (120D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 24 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Boafo | 2026-11-03 | 71.0% | $1 | $8.5K | A | KXMDPRIMARY-…BOA | ||
| Harry Dunn | 2026-11-03 | 23.0% | $113 | $379 | A | KXMDPRIMARY-…DUN | ||
| Rushern Baker III | 2026-11-03 | 15.0% | $37 | $274 | A | KXMDPRIMARY-…BAK | ||
| Quincy Bareebe | 2026-11-03 | 5.8% | — | $67 | A | KXMDPRIMARY-…BAR | ||
| Nicole Williams | 2026-11-03 | 5.7% | — | $16 | A | KXMDPRIMARY-…WIL | ||
| Wala Blegay | 2026-11-03 | 3.9% | — | $11 | A | KXMDPRIMARY-…BLE | ||
| Harry Jarin | 2026-11-03 | 3.8% | — | $6 | A | KXMDPRIMARY-…JAR | ||
| Arthur Ellis | 2026-11-03 | 3.5% | — | $4 | A | KXMDPRIMARY-…ELL | ||
| Terry Jackson | 2026-11-03 | 3.0% | — | $3 | A | KXMDPRIMARY-…JAC | ||
| Jerry Lightfoot | 2026-11-03 | 2.0% | — | $1 | A | KXMDPRIMARY-…LIG | ||
| Heather Luper | 2026-11-03 | 2.0% | — | $3 | A | KXMDPRIMARY-…LUP | ||
| Mark Kenneth Arness | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $0 | $0 | A | KXMDPRIMARY-…ARN | ||
| Reuben Collins II | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | A | KXMDPRIMARY-…COL | ||
| Ellis Colvin | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | A | KXMDPRIMARY-…COL | ||
| Elldwnia English | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | A | KXMDPRIMARY-…ENG | ||
| Walter Kirkland | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | A | KXMDPRIMARY-…KIR | ||
| James Makle Jr. | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | A | KXMDPRIMARY-…MAK | ||
| Leigha Messick | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | A | KXMDPRIMARY-…MES | ||
| Keith Salkowski | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | A | KXMDPRIMARY-…SAL | ||
| Kenneth Simons | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | A | KXMDPRIMARY-…SIM | ||
| Alexis Solis | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | A | KXMDPRIMARY-…SOL | ||
| Tracy Starr | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | A | KXMDPRIMARY-…STA | ||
| Dave Sundberg | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | A | KXMDPRIMARY-…SUN | ||
| Harold Tolbert | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $0 | A | KXMDPRIMARY-…TOL |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Mark Kenneth Arness wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MD-05 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" sources (2) · single authority
- Republican Party venue-listed
- Democratic Party source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmdprimary-05d26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmdprimary-05d26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmdprimary-05d26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MX5Y35ZL63",
"slug": "kxmdprimary-05d26",
"question": "Will the MD-05 Democratic nominee be determined by the 2026 election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"maryland-politics",
"2027-election",
"democratic-nominee",
"us-house",
"congressional-race"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 24,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 9235,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Republican Party",
"url": "https://gop.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Democratic Party",
"url": "https://democrats.org/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}