Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation feet in Dec 2026 [ resolves 2027-01-07 (168D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 1033 | 2027-01-07 | 94.0% | $2 | $86 | A | KXMEAD-26DEC-A1033 | ||
| > 1034 | 2027-01-07 | 90.0% | — | $51 | A | KXMEAD-26DEC-A1034 | ||
| > 1035 | 2027-01-07 | 80.0% | $8 | $46 | A | KXMEAD-26DEC-A1035 | ||
| > 1036 | 2027-01-07 | 78.0% | — | $461 | A | KXMEAD-26DEC-A1036 | ||
| > 1037 | 2027-01-07 | 68.0% | — | $135 | A | KXMEAD-26DEC-A1037 | ||
| > 1038 | 2027-01-07 | 55.0% | — | $199 | A | KXMEAD-26DEC-A1038 | ||
| > 1039 | 2027-01-07 | 49.0% | $1 | $3.5K | A | KXMEAD-26DEC-A1039 | ||
| > 1040 | 2027-01-07 | 35.0% | — | $841 | A | KXMEAD-26DEC-A1040 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | U.S. Bureau of Reclamation | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation at Hoover Dam for Dec 2026 is strictly greater than 1033 feet, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "U.S. Bureau of Reclamation" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- U.S. Bureau of Reclamation source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmead-26dec/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmead-26dec |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmead-26dec") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-8ZFZYDQDD8",
"slug": "kxmead-26dec",
"question": "Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation feet in Dec 2026",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"lake-mead",
"water-elevation",
"southwest-drought",
"climate-measurement",
"2027-resolution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5327,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "U.S. Bureau of Reclamation",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/hourly/mead-elv.html",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "U.S. Bureau of Reclamation",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "U.S. Bureau of Reclamation",
"url": "https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/hourly/mead-elv.html",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}