Measles cases, 2026 [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 1,500 | 2026-12-31 | 99.0% | — | $20K | A | KXMEASLES-26-1500 | ||
| ≥ 1,750 | 2026-12-31 | 99.0% | — | $18K | A | KXMEASLES-26-1750 | ||
| ≥ 2,000 | 2026-12-31 | 99.0% | — | $95K | A | KXMEASLES-26-2000 | ||
| ≥ 3,000 | 2026-12-31 | 82.0% | $74 | $2.2K | A | KXMEASLES-26-3000 | ||
| ≥ 4,000 | 2026-12-31 | 33.0% | $41 | $63K | A | KXMEASLES-26-4000 | ||
| ≥ 6,000 | 2026-12-31 | 14.0% | — | $19K | A | KXMEASLES-26-6000 | ||
| ≥ 8,000 | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | $14 | $9.5K | A | KXMEASLES-26-8000 | ||
| ≥ 10,000 | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | $7 | $11K | A | KXMEASLES-26-10000 |
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | cdc.gov | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
kalshi.settlement_sources → "cdc.gov" ↗ No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmeasles-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmeasles-26.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmeasles-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VVMHPKMQ72",
"slug": "kxmeasles-26",
"question": "Measles cases, 2026",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"measles-cases",
"public-health",
"disease-surveillance",
"2026-data",
"epidemiology"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 237047,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "cdc.gov",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cdc.gov/measles/cases-outbreaks.html",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}