Measles cases, 2026 [ resolves 2027-12-31 (543D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 1500 | 2027-12-31 | 99.0% | — | $20K | A | KXMEASLES-26-1500 | ||
| > 1750 | 2027-12-31 | 99.0% | — | $18K | A | KXMEASLES-26-1750 | ||
| > 2000 | 2027-12-31 | 99.0% | — | $95K | A | KXMEASLES-26-2000 | ||
| > 3000 | 2027-12-31 | 89.0% | $454 | $3.9K | A | KXMEASLES-26-3000 | ||
| > 4000 | 2027-12-31 | 34.0% | $766 | $66K | A | KXMEASLES-26-4000 | ||
| > 6000 | 2027-12-31 | 13.0% | $34 | $19K | A | KXMEASLES-26-6000 | ||
| > 8000 | 2027-12-31 | 11.0% | $13 | $11K | A | KXMEASLES-26-8000 | ||
| > 10000 | 2027-12-31 | 7.0% | — | $9.9K | A | KXMEASLES-26-10000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | CDC | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the number of measles in 2026 is above 1500, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "CDC" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- CDC source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will there be more than 1500 measles cases in 2026? | kalshi | 2027-12-31 | 99% |
| YES | Will there be more than 1750 measles cases in 2026? | kalshi | 2027-12-31 | 99% |
| YES | Will there be more than 2000 measles cases in 2026? | kalshi | 2027-12-31 | 99% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (3 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmeasles-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmeasles-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmeasles-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VVMHPKMQ72",
"slug": "kxmeasles-26",
"question": "Measles cases, 2026",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"public-health",
"disease-incidence",
"measles",
"epidemiology",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 242033,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "CDC",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cdc.gov/measles/cases-outbreaks.html",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "CDC",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "CDC",
"url": "https://www.cdc.gov/measles/cases-outbreaks.html",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}