Will the Maine Democratic Senate nominee be announced by July 31, 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-08 (16D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 21 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Jackson | 2026-08-08 | 99.0% | $13K | $1.07M | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…JAC | ||
| No one | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | — | $1.2K | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…ONE | ||
| Nirav Shah | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | $10 | $5.5K | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…SHA | ||
| Janet Mills | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | $2 | $2.0K | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…MIL | ||
| Shenna Bellows | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | — | $3.9K | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…BEL | ||
| Graham Platner | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | $6 | $8.2K | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…PLA | ||
| Sara Gideon | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | — | $1.7K | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…GID | ||
| Dan Kleban | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | $6 | $1.9K | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…KLE | ||
| Mattie Daughtrey | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | — | $260 | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…DAU | ||
| Patrick Dempsey | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | — | $717 | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…DEM | ||
| Brian Bryant | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | $1 | $74 | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…BRY | ||
| Valli Geiger | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | — | $1.4K | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…GEI | ||
| Jared Golden | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | — | $818 | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…GOL | ||
| Emily Cain | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | — | $275 | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…CAI | ||
| Chellie Pingree | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | $2 | $86 | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…PIN | ||
| Jordan Wood | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | — | $1.8K | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…WOO | ||
| Aaron Frey | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | $3 | $116 | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…FRE | ||
| Paige Loud | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | — | $8 | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…LOU | ||
| David Costello | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | — | $10 | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…COS | ||
| Elizabeth Dickerson | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | — | $15 | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…DIC | ||
| Ashley Webb | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | $3 | $112 | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…WEB |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Semafor | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If No one is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If Graham Platner withdraws or is replaced as the nominee by the Maine Democratic State Committee, the market will resolve to whichever individual is the Democratic nominee as of July 31, 2026. If Graham Platner withdraws and no replacement nominee has been selected as of July 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "No one." If Graham Platner remains the nominee as of July 31, 2026, the market will resolve to Graham Platner. For purposes of this market, the relevant question is who holds the Democratic nomination as of July 31, 2026, regardless of when that status was first established or reported.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Semafor" sources (16)
- Semafor venue-listed
- ABC venue-listed
- Bloomberg venue-listed
- NBC venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- Associated Press venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- the New York Times venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmednomjul-26aug01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmednomjul-26aug01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmednomjul-26aug01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-NS6DG63Q18",
"slug": "kxmednomjul-26aug01",
"question": "Will the Maine Democratic Senate nominee be announced by July 31, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"maine-politics",
"2026-senate-race",
"democratic-nominee",
"us-elections",
"primary-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 21,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1095767,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 58,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "Semafor",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}