CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,860 EVENTS / ~39,200 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will the Maine Democratic Senate nominee be announced by July 31, 2026? [ resolved 2026-07-31 ]

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 21 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Troy Jackson 2026-07-31 100.0%
$13K $1.07M
C KXMEDNOMJUL-…JAC
No one 2026-07-31 0.0%
$1.2K
C KXMEDNOMJUL-…ONE
Nirav Shah 2026-07-31 0.0%
$10 $5.5K
C KXMEDNOMJUL-…SHA
Janet Mills 2026-07-31 0.0%
$2 $2.0K
C KXMEDNOMJUL-…MIL
Shenna Bellows 2026-07-31 0.0%
$3.9K
C KXMEDNOMJUL-…BEL
Graham Platner 2026-07-31 0.0%
$6 $8.2K
C KXMEDNOMJUL-…PLA
Sara Gideon 2026-07-31 0.0%
$1.7K
C KXMEDNOMJUL-…GID
Dan Kleban 2026-07-31 0.0%
$6 $1.9K
C KXMEDNOMJUL-…KLE
Mattie Daughtrey 2026-07-31 0.0%
$260
C KXMEDNOMJUL-…DAU
Patrick Dempsey 2026-07-31 0.0%
$717
C KXMEDNOMJUL-…DEM
Brian Bryant 2026-07-31 0.0%
$1 $74
C KXMEDNOMJUL-…BRY
Valli Geiger 2026-07-31 0.0%
$1.4K
C KXMEDNOMJUL-…GEI
Jared Golden 2026-07-31 0.0%
$818
C KXMEDNOMJUL-…GOL
Emily Cain 2026-07-31 0.0%
$275
C KXMEDNOMJUL-…CAI
Chellie Pingree 2026-07-31 0.0%
$2 $86
C KXMEDNOMJUL-…PIN
Jordan Wood 2026-07-31 0.0%
$1.8K
C KXMEDNOMJUL-…WOO
Aaron Frey 2026-07-31 0.0%
$3 $116
C KXMEDNOMJUL-…FRE
Paige Loud 2026-07-31 0.0%
$8
C KXMEDNOMJUL-…LOU
David Costello 2026-07-31 0.0%
$10
C KXMEDNOMJUL-…COS
Elizabeth Dickerson 2026-07-31 0.0%
$15
C KXMEDNOMJUL-…DIC
Ashley Webb 2026-07-31 0.0%
$3 $112
C KXMEDNOMJUL-…WEB
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff Semafor not provided Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 21 markets · share this text
If No one is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Graham Platner withdraws or is replaced as the nominee by the Maine Democratic State Committee, the market will resolve to whichever individual is the Democratic nominee as of July 31, 2026. If Graham Platner withdraws and no replacement nominee has been selected as of July 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "No one." If Graham Platner remains the nominee as of July 31, 2026, the market will resolve to Graham Platner. For purposes of this market, the relevant question is who holds the Democratic nomination as of July 31, 2026, regardless of when that status was first established or reported.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Semafor"
sources (16)
Semafor venue-listed ABC venue-listed Bloomberg venue-listed NBC venue-listed The Washington Post venue-listed Associated Press venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed Fox News venue-listed Reuters venue-listed The Information venue-listed Politico venue-listed Axios venue-listed MSNBC venue-listed CNN venue-listed the New York Times venue-listed CBS venue-listed
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
NO Will it be confirmed that No one is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will it be confirmed that Nirav Shah is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
YES Will it be confirmed that Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 100%
NO Will it be confirmed that Janet Mills is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will it be confirmed that Shenna Bellows is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will it be confirmed that Graham Platner is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will it be confirmed that Sara Gideon is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will it be confirmed that Dan Kleban is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will it be confirmed that Mattie Daughtrey is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will it be confirmed that Patrick Dempsey is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will it be confirmed that Brian Bryant is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will it be confirmed that Valli Geiger is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will it be confirmed that Jared Golden is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will it be confirmed that Emily Cain is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will it be confirmed that Chellie Pingree is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will it be confirmed that Jordan Wood is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will it be confirmed that Aaron Frey is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will it be confirmed that Paige Loud is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will it be confirmed that David Costello is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will it be confirmed that Elizabeth Dickerson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will it be confirmed that Ashley Webb is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (21 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmednomjul-26aug01/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmednomjul-26aug01
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxmednomjul-26aug01")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-NS6DG63Q18",
  "slug": "kxmednomjul-26aug01",
  "question": "Will the Maine Democratic Senate nominee be announced by July 31, 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "maine-politics",
    "2026-senate-race",
    "democratic-nominee",
    "us-elections",
    "primary-outcome"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 21,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 1095767,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 58,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "Semafor",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "Semafor",
      "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "ABC",
      "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bloomberg",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "NBC",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Fox News",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Information",
      "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Axios",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "MSNBC",
      "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNN",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CBS",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →