Will the Maine Democratic Senate nominee be announced by July 31, 2026? [ resolved 2026-07-31 ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 21 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Jackson | 2026-07-31 | 100.0% | $13K | $1.07M | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…JAC | ||
| No one | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | $1.2K | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…ONE | ||
| Nirav Shah | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | $10 | $5.5K | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…SHA | ||
| Janet Mills | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | $2 | $2.0K | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…MIL | ||
| Shenna Bellows | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | $3.9K | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…BEL | ||
| Graham Platner | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | $6 | $8.2K | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…PLA | ||
| Sara Gideon | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | $1.7K | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…GID | ||
| Dan Kleban | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | $6 | $1.9K | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…KLE | ||
| Mattie Daughtrey | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | $260 | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…DAU | ||
| Patrick Dempsey | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | $717 | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…DEM | ||
| Brian Bryant | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | $1 | $74 | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…BRY | ||
| Valli Geiger | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | $1.4K | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…GEI | ||
| Jared Golden | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | $818 | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…GOL | ||
| Emily Cain | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | $275 | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…CAI | ||
| Chellie Pingree | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | $2 | $86 | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…PIN | ||
| Jordan Wood | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | $1.8K | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…WOO | ||
| Aaron Frey | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | $3 | $116 | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…FRE | ||
| Paige Loud | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | $8 | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…LOU | ||
| David Costello | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | $10 | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…COS | ||
| Elizabeth Dickerson | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | $15 | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…DIC | ||
| Ashley Webb | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | $3 | $112 | C | KXMEDNOMJUL-…WEB |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Semafor | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If No one is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If Graham Platner withdraws or is replaced as the nominee by the Maine Democratic State Committee, the market will resolve to whichever individual is the Democratic nominee as of July 31, 2026. If Graham Platner withdraws and no replacement nominee has been selected as of July 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "No one." If Graham Platner remains the nominee as of July 31, 2026, the market will resolve to Graham Platner. For purposes of this market, the relevant question is who holds the Democratic nomination as of July 31, 2026, regardless of when that status was first established or reported.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Semafor" sources (16)
Semafor venue-listed ABC venue-listed Bloomberg venue-listed NBC venue-listed The Washington Post venue-listed Associated Press venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed Fox News venue-listed Reuters venue-listed The Information venue-listed Politico venue-listed Axios venue-listed MSNBC venue-listed CNN venue-listed the New York Times venue-listed CBS venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will it be confirmed that No one is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-31 | 0% |
| NO | Will it be confirmed that Nirav Shah is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-31 | 0% |
| YES | Will it be confirmed that Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-31 | 100% |
| NO | Will it be confirmed that Janet Mills is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-31 | 0% |
| NO | Will it be confirmed that Shenna Bellows is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-31 | 0% |
| NO | Will it be confirmed that Graham Platner is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-31 | 0% |
| NO | Will it be confirmed that Sara Gideon is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-31 | 0% |
| NO | Will it be confirmed that Dan Kleban is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-31 | 0% |
| NO | Will it be confirmed that Mattie Daughtrey is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-31 | 0% |
| NO | Will it be confirmed that Patrick Dempsey is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-31 | 0% |
| NO | Will it be confirmed that Brian Bryant is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-31 | 0% |
| NO | Will it be confirmed that Valli Geiger is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-31 | 0% |
| NO | Will it be confirmed that Jared Golden is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-31 | 0% |
| NO | Will it be confirmed that Emily Cain is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-31 | 0% |
| NO | Will it be confirmed that Chellie Pingree is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-31 | 0% |
| NO | Will it be confirmed that Jordan Wood is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-31 | 0% |
| NO | Will it be confirmed that Aaron Frey is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-31 | 0% |
| NO | Will it be confirmed that Paige Loud is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-31 | 0% |
| NO | Will it be confirmed that David Costello is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-31 | 0% |
| NO | Will it be confirmed that Elizabeth Dickerson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-31 | 0% |
| NO | Will it be confirmed that Ashley Webb is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-31 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (21 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
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programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmednomjul-26aug01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmednomjul-26aug01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmednomjul-26aug01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-NS6DG63Q18",
"slug": "kxmednomjul-26aug01",
"question": "Will the Maine Democratic Senate nominee be announced by July 31, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"maine-politics",
"2026-senate-race",
"democratic-nominee",
"us-elections",
"primary-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 21,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1095767,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 58,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "Semafor",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}