Maine-Texas Senate Combo [ resolves 2027-11-03 (485D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton wins AND Maine Senate be Susan Collins | 2027-11-03 | 35.0% | $45 | $15K | A | KXMETXCOMBO-…COL | ||
| James Talarico wins AND Maine Senate be Graham Platner | 2027-11-03 | 34.0% | $114 | $7.2K | A | KXMETXCOMBO-…PLA | ||
| Ken Paxton wins AND Maine Senate be Graham Platner | 2027-11-03 | 24.0% | $98 | $5.4K | A | KXMETXCOMBO-…PLA | ||
| James Talarico wins AND Maine Senate be Susan Collins | 2027-11-03 | 13.0% | $6 | $4.8K | A | KXMETXCOMBO-…COL |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If ALL of the following occur: Texas Senate: James Talarico wins, Maine Senate: Susan Collins wins, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Texas Senate (USELECTION), Maine Senate (USELECTION). All conditions must be satisfied for the 2026 midterms.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
- Bureau of Labor Statistics source of record venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics source of record venue-listed
- Federal Reserve Board of Governors venue-listed
recent wire items
- Collins Maine win combined with Paxton Texas win wavers below even odds Kalshi 39%
- Kalshi prices 39% on both Ken Paxton winning Texas and Susan Collins winning Maine in the November 2026 elections.
- Platner's primary win is consistent with the below-50% pricing, the market treats the Maine seat as genuinely competitive, dragging down the joint probability.
- A separate Kalshi contract prices 99% on Collins as the Republican nominee, confirming the market sees no GOP primary risk; the competitiveness is entirely in the general election.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics per the named resolution source, though this appears to be a joint electoral outcome contract; resolution mechanics depend on both state certification results.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmetxcombo-26nov/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmetxcombo-26nov |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmetxcombo-26nov") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DHD47MSVK6",
"slug": "kxmetxcombo-26nov",
"question": "Maine-Texas Senate Combo",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate",
"multi-state-combo",
"2026-elections",
"conditional-conjunction",
"maine-texas"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 32483,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}