Will the Democratic nominee for Michigan's 13th congressional district be decided by the 2026 general election? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2026-11 ]
Will Nazmul Hassan be the Democratic nominee for MI-13?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donavan McKinney | 2026-08-05 | 100.0% | $33K | $348K | A | KXMI13D-26-DMCK | ||
| Shri Thanedar | 2026-08-05 | 0.0% | $2.1K | $51K | A | KXMI13D-26-STHA | ||
| Nazmul Hassan | 2026-11-03 | 0.7% | — | $11 | A | KXMI13D-26-NHAS | ||
| Anthony Carbonaro | 2026-11-03 | 0.7% | $7 | $18 | A | KXMI13D-26-ACAR | ||
| Shelby Campbell | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $2 | A | KXMI13D-26-SCAM |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Shri Thanedar wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MI-13 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic nominee for MI-13? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| YES | Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic nominee for MI-13? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Thanedar MI-13 nominee odds stay under 25% on new volume 5% · $63K 24h
- Kalshi prices Thanedar at 5%, market assigns him a long-shot path in MI-13.
- 77% of all-time contract volume arrived in 24h alongside the McKinney spike.
- Same Michigan primary cycle driving both contracts; Thanedar volume is the 'No' mirror.
- Resolves on MI-13 Democratic primary certification.
- Heavy trading backs McKinney as MI-13 Dem nominee 95% · $1.1M 24h
- Kalshi prices McKinney at 95%, strong but not yet fully collapsed to certainty.
- 76% of all-time volume arrived in 24h, signaling a decisive informational event.
- Surge likely tied to same Michigan primary cycle driving the El-Sayed contract.
- Resolves on certification of MI-13 Democratic primary winner.
- Heavy trading backs McKinney as MI-13 Democratic nominee at 85% 85% · $89K 24h
- Kalshi prices McKinney at 85% to win the MI-13 Democratic nomination, strong frontrunner read.
- 24h volume of $89K is 39% of all-time flow, a meaningful single-day acceleration.
- Attention likely driven by primary filing deadlines, endorsement news, or rival Thanedar's weakening position.
- Primary outcome resolves this contract; McKinney and Thanedar are the key names in market.
- Buyers back McKinney as MI-13 Democratic nominee front-runner 83% · $47K 24h
- At 83%, Kalshi prices McKinney as the strong favorite for the MI-13 Democratic nomination.
- $46K in 24h is 34% of all-time volume, a meaningful single-day capital deployment.
- Volume surge alongside high price suggests reinforcing news, polling, or endorsement activity.
- Resolves on official certification of the MI-13 Democratic nominee.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmi13d-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmi13d-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmi13d-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-CYX84N0L20",
"slug": "kxmi13d-26",
"question": "Will the Democratic nominee for Michigan's 13th congressional district be decided by the 2026 general election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"michigan-13",
"democratic-primary",
"2026-midterms",
"nominee-selection",
"us-house"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 399398,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 86,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Republican Party",
"url": "https://gop.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Democratic Party",
"url": "https://democrats.org/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}