Will the midterm elections happen on schedule? [ resolves 2026-11-10 (98D) ]
Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time | 2026-11-10 | 83.0% | $2.0K | $29K | C | KXMIDTERMHAP…T50 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Washington Post | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the regularly scheduled biennial federal general election for the U.S. House of Representatives is conducted on time in all 50 U.S. states on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
An election is "conducted on time" in a state if, on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026, election officials in that state lawfully accept ballots cast by voters in such election in each of the state's U.S. House of Representatives congressional districts, such that votes cast on that date in each such district are eligible to be counted toward determining the winner of the election in that district. Lawful means of accepting ballots include in person at polling places, by mail, by absentee voting, by provisional ballot, or by other lawful means accepted on that date.
Localized disruptions within a congressional district do not disqualify that district from being "conducted on time" so long as ballots are lawfully accepted somewhere within the district on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026. These include, without limitation:
Individual polling places opening late or closing early
Individual voting machines malfunctioning
Localized power, weather, or connectivity outages
However, if on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026 no ballots are lawfully accepted anywhere within one or more of a state's congressional districts, the state is not "conducted on time" regardless of whether ballots are accepted in other congressional districts within that state.
An election that is postponed to, rescheduled to, conducted on, or otherwise held on a date other than the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026 in a state does not qualify as "conducted on time" in that state, regardless of the reason for the change of date and regardless of whether such change is lawful. This includes, without limitation, any change effected by federal legislation, executive order, presidential proclamation, federal agency directive, state law or proclamation, court order, or any other instrument. Ballots cast before the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026 through early voting do not, by themselves, satisfy this criterion in a state unless ballots are also lawfully accepted on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026 in that state.
Special elections to fill vacancies, primary elections, and elections to non-voting delegate seats (including those representing the District of Columbia and U.S. territories) are not, by themselves, the "regularly scheduled biennial federal general election" referenced herein. The validity, fairness, certification status, or subsequent judicial treatment of any such election does not affect whether the election was "conducted on time" for purposes of this Contract; the test is whether election officials in the relevant state lawfully accepted ballots in the election on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Washington Post" sources (15) · single authority
The Washington Post venue-listed The Source Agencies are venue-listed CBS News venue-listed Fox News venue-listed the Federal Election Commission committed source the New York Times venue-listed Bloomberg News venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed the U venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed NBC News venue-listed Reuters venue-listed BBC News venue-listed CNN venue-listed ABC News venue-listed
recent wire items
- Midterm elections proceeding on schedule stays near certain Kalshi 90%
- Kalshi prices 90% probability that the midterm elections will happen on schedule despite reported federal actions around voting infrastructure.
- The CBS News story raises interference concerns, but the prediction market prices an on-schedule election as the strong baseline, not treating federal actions as a credible disruption threat.
- Companion Kalshi contracts on specific races (Michigan 10th at 67%, Georgia Governor at 49% via Polymarket) show competitive individual contests, consistent with a normal election proceeding.
- Resolves via The Washington Post as the named resolution source; any official postponement or large-scale disruption announcement would be the key settlement trigger.
- Midterm elections happening on schedule stays heavily favored at 91% Kalshi 91%
- Kalshi puts 91% odds on the 2026 midterm elections proceeding on their scheduled date.
- Trump's rejection of international election observers is a procedural controversy, but the market's 91% pricing shows high confidence the elections themselves will occur on time.
- The 9% residual reflects tail risk around election disruption, but the market is not treating the OSCE rejection as a credible scheduling threat.
- Resolves via The Washington Post; likely requires a credible public report confirming elections were held or formally postponed on the scheduled date.
- Midterm elections on schedule priced as near-certain by markets Kalshi 84%
- The Kalshi contract prices an 84% probability that the midterm elections proceed on their scheduled date despite the legal challenge.
- The lawsuit targets federal law enforcement deployment at polling sites; Kalshi's 84% implies the market views a schedule disruption as a real but minority risk.
- A 16% probability of off-schedule elections is unusually elevated for what is typically a near-certainty, suggesting the market is treating the litigation and political pressure as non-trivial.
- Resolves via The Washington Post as the named resolution source; any court-ordered delay or logistical disruption to polling would be the key settlement edge case.
- Midterm elections on schedule stays heavily favored at 90% Kalshi 90%
- Kalshi prices 90% on the midterm elections happening on schedule, resolving via The Washington Post.
- Despite active litigation over mail-ballot rules and a Supreme Court appeal, prediction markets strongly dismiss the risk of the elections being delayed or cancelled.
- The mail-voting dispute is about ballot rules, not the election date itself; the market's 90% is consistent with courts blocking rules without blocking the election.
- Companion contract on SCOTUS barring post-Election-Day mail ballot counting (CM-EVT-8NWCS8ZRW8) has no live price, leaving the downstream ballot-counting risk unquantified.
- Midterm elections happening on schedule stays near certain Kalshi 90%
- Kalshi prices 90% odds that the midterm elections happen on schedule, per The Washington Post as resolution source.
- North Carolina ballot distribution and ongoing court blocks on Trump mail-voting restrictions are consistent with elections proceeding; the market is not pricing meaningful disruption.
- Companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) puts 48% on Republicans controlling at least one chamber after the midterms, near coin-flip odds for overall control.
- The on-schedule contract resolves via The Washington Post; a Supreme Court intervention altering the election timeline would be the key upset scenario.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmidtermhappen-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmidtermhappen-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmidtermhappen-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HT9T7KMRT5",
"slug": "kxmidtermhappen-2026",
"question": "Will the midterm elections happen on schedule?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-midterms-2026",
"electoral-timing",
"us-politics",
"election-administration",
"binary-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 28921,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "the Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Source Agencies are",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS News",
"url": "https://cbsnews.org",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Federal Election Commission",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the U",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC News",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BBC News",
"url": "https://www.bbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC News",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}