Will the midterm elections happen on schedule? [ resolves 2026-11-10 (98D) ]
Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time | 2026-11-10 | 83.0% | $2.0K | $29K | C | KXMIDTERMHAP…T50 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Washington Post | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the regularly scheduled biennial federal general election for the U.S. House of Representatives is conducted on time in all 50 U.S. states on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
An election is "conducted on time" in a state if, on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026, election officials in that state lawfully accept ballots cast by voters in such election in each of the state's U.S. House of Representatives congressional districts, such that votes cast on that date in each such district are eligible to be counted toward determining the winner of the election in that district. Lawful means of accepting ballots include in person at polling places, by mail, by absentee voting, by provisional ballot, or by other lawful means accepted on that date.
Localized disruptions within a congressional district do not disqualify that district from being "conducted on time" so long as ballots are lawfully accepted somewhere within the district on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026. These include, without limitation:
Individual polling places opening late or closing early
Individual voting machines malfunctioning
Localized power, weather, or connectivity outages
However, if on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026 no ballots are lawfully accepted anywhere within one or more of a state's congressional districts, the state is not "conducted on time" regardless of whether ballots are accepted in other congressional districts within that state.
An election that is postponed to, rescheduled to, conducted on, or otherwise held on a date other than the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026 in a state does not qualify as "conducted on time" in that state, regardless of the reason for the change of date and regardless of whether such change is lawful. This includes, without limitation, any change effected by federal legislation, executive order, presidential proclamation, federal agency directive, state law or proclamation, court order, or any other instrument. Ballots cast before the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026 through early voting do not, by themselves, satisfy this criterion in a state unless ballots are also lawfully accepted on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026 in that state.
Special elections to fill vacancies, primary elections, and elections to non-voting delegate seats (including those representing the District of Columbia and U.S. territories) are not, by themselves, the "regularly scheduled biennial federal general election" referenced herein. The validity, fairness, certification status, or subsequent judicial treatment of any such election does not affect whether the election was "conducted on time" for purposes of this Contract; the test is whether election officials in the relevant state lawfully accepted ballots in the election on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Washington Post" sources (15) · single authority
The Washington Post venue-listed The Source Agencies are venue-listed CBS News venue-listed Fox News venue-listed the Federal Election Commission committed source the New York Times venue-listed Bloomberg News venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed the U venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed NBC News venue-listed Reuters venue-listed BBC News venue-listed CNN venue-listed ABC News venue-listed
recent wire items
- Midterm elections happening on schedule stays near certain Kalshi 90%
- Kalshi prices 90% odds that the midterm elections happen on schedule, per The Washington Post as resolution source.
- North Carolina ballot distribution and ongoing court blocks on Trump mail-voting restrictions are consistent with elections proceeding; the market is not pricing meaningful disruption.
- Companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) puts 48% on Republicans controlling at least one chamber after the midterms, near coin-flip odds for overall control.
- The on-schedule contract resolves via The Washington Post; a Supreme Court intervention altering the election timeline would be the key upset scenario.
- Midterm elections on schedule holds near 90 percent Kalshi 89%
- Kalshi prices an 89% probability that the midterm elections happen on schedule, despite mounting logistical and legal turmoil over mail voting rules.
- Election officials' warnings of implementation impossibility and a federal court block on USPS mail rules do not appear to have shifted the market's strong base case for on-schedule elections.
- A separate Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) puts only 48% on Republicans controlling at least one chamber after the midterms, reflecting a competitive election environment within the on-schedule baseline.
- Kalshi contract resolves via The Washington Post's official call on whether midterm elections occur as scheduled; a court-ordered postponement would be the key resolution trigger.
- Midterm elections staying on schedule priced as near certainty Kalshi 90%
- Kalshi prices 90% on the 2026 midterm elections happening on schedule.
- Despite the administration's earlier gutting of election security infrastructure and ongoing rebuilding efforts, markets see only a 10% chance of any delay or cancellation.
- Noncitizen voter roll claims by the Trump administration and rebuilding security gaps are narrative risks, but Kalshi's 90% reflects that legal and constitutional constraints make delay very unlikely.
- Kalshi resolves via The Washington Post; any official postponement or cancellation of a scheduled federal election would trigger a NO.
- Midterm elections on-schedule consensus holds firm at 85 percent Kalshi 85%
- Kalshi contract on midterm elections proceeding on schedule prices at 85%, with trading volume up 3,131% (32.3x) day over day.
- Despite Trump administration threats to election officials and claims of broad vulnerabilities, the market still puts only a 15% chance elections are disrupted or delayed.
- The volume surge signals the election-interference narrative is pulling fresh attention to this contract, even as the probability itself remains elevated.
- Resolves via The Washington Post confirming whether midterm elections are held on their scheduled date.
- Midterm elections on schedule absorbs Trump integrity pressure Kalshi 83%
- Kalshi prices 83% on the midterm elections proceeding on schedule, despite sustained White House pressure on election administration.
- Trump's primetime address and Mullin's follow-on enforcement threats have not pushed the market below its current 83% on-schedule probability.
- The 17% residual off-schedule probability reflects non-trivial market concern that election administration disputes could delay or disrupt the November contests.
- Resolution is via The Washington Post reporting on whether elections proceed on their statutory date; legal or administrative disruption, not just political rhetoric, would be required for a NO resolution.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmidtermhappen-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmidtermhappen-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmidtermhappen-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HT9T7KMRT5",
"slug": "kxmidtermhappen-2026",
"question": "Will the midterm elections happen on schedule?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-midterms-2026",
"electoral-timing",
"us-politics",
"election-administration",
"binary-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 28921,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "the Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Source Agencies are",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS News",
"url": "https://cbsnews.org",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Federal Election Commission",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the U",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC News",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BBC News",
"url": "https://www.bbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC News",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}