Will the North Carolina Senate margin of victory be less than 5 percentage points? [ resolves 2027-11-03 (456D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North… | 2027-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…-P1 | ||
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North… | 2027-11-03 | 79.0% | — | $845 | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…-P3 | ||
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North… | 2027-11-03 | 67.0% | — | $2.2K | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…-P5 | ||
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North… | 2027-11-03 | 56.0% | $2 | $1.4K | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…-P7 | ||
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North… | 2027-11-03 | 49.0% | — | $1.6K | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…-P9 | ||
| 11 | 2027-11-03 | 34.0% | — | $106 | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P11 | ||
| 13 | 2027-11-03 | 28.0% | — | $122 | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P13 | ||
| 15 | 2027-11-03 | 19.0% | — | $24 | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P15 | ||
| 17 | 2027-11-03 | 14.0% | — | $14 | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P17 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography> | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.
If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>" ↗ sources (1)
recent wire items
- Heavy trading tests the Democratic margin band in North Carolina Senate 59% · $14K 24h
- At 59% on Kalshi, a Democratic victory margin above the specified threshold in North Carolina is slightly favored.
- $14K in 24h equals 40% of all-time volume, concentrated Election Day flow on a margin-of-victory contract.
- Margin contracts attract late-cycle attention as trackers and modelers refine turnout assumptions on Election Day.
- Resolves on the certified vote margin from North Carolina's 2026 U.S. Senate race.
- NC Senate Democratic margin locks in at 98% 98% · $31K 24h
- 98% prices it as near-certain Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race by their targeted margin.
- $31K in 24h covers 74% of all-time volume, nearly the full contract lifecycle compressed into one session.
- A margin-of-victory contract at 98% with this volume share suggests final settlement buying.
- Resolves on certified North Carolina Senate vote margin.
- Traders back a wide Democrat margin in NC Senate at 98% 98% · $31K 24h
- Kalshi prices Democrats winning the North Carolina Senate race by the specified margin at 98%, near-certain.
- 24h volume of $31K is 74% of all-time $41K; contract is almost entirely a single-day event.
- 98% pricing with a fresh-volume surge implies any residual uncertainty is being priced out by the market.
- Resolves on the certified Democratic margin of victory in the NC U.S. Senate election.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmidtermmov-ncsend/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmidtermmov-ncsend |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmidtermmov-ncsend") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-22Y3TGXT19",
"slug": "kxmidtermmov-ncsend",
"question": "Will the North Carolina Senate margin of victory be less than 5 percentage points?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate-elections",
"north-carolina-politics",
"2027-election",
"margin-of-victory",
"electoral-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6348,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}