Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Carolina be at least 5 percentage points? [ resolves 2027-11-03 (456D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South… | 2027-11-03 | 85.0% | — | $1.5K | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…-P1 | ||
| Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South… | 2027-11-03 | 85.0% | — | $343 | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…-P3 | ||
| Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South… | 2027-11-03 | 70.0% | — | $1.7K | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…-P5 | ||
| Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South… | 2027-11-03 | 53.0% | — | $939 | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…-P7 | ||
| Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South… | 2027-11-03 | 38.0% | — | $506 | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…-P9 | ||
| 11 | 2027-11-03 | 25.0% | — | $134 | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P11 | ||
| 13 | 2027-11-03 | 18.0% | — | $37 | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P13 | ||
| 15 | 2027-11-03 | 12.0% | — | $12 | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P15 | ||
| 17 | 2027-11-03 | 3.2% | — | $13 | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P17 | ||
| 19 | 2027-11-03 | 9.0% | — | $0 | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P19 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography> | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.
If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>" ↗ sources (1)
recent wire items
- South Dakota Senate GOP margin sits at 50-50 on fresh Kalshi flow 52% · $14K 24h
- At 52%, traders see the Republican margin question in South Dakota as a near coin-flip.
- 30% of all-time volume arrived in 24 hours, lifting activity on a previously thin contract.
- South Dakota is safely Republican but margin-of-victory contracts hinge on turnout specifics.
- Resolves on the certified margin from the 2026 South Dakota U.S. Senate election.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmidtermmov-scsenr/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmidtermmov-scsenr |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmidtermmov-scsenr") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-20CYP3Z7L1",
"slug": "kxmidtermmov-scsenr",
"question": "Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Carolina be at least 5 percentage points?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate-elections",
"south-carolina-politics",
"election-margins",
"2027-elections",
"republican-performance"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5259,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}