Will Michigan elect a governor and senator from the same party in the next election? [ resolves 2027-11-03 (456D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic party and Michigan Senate winner be Democratic | 2027-11-03 | 68.0% | $1 | $6.2K | C | KXMISENGOVCO…DEM | ||
| Democratic party and Michigan Senate winner be Republican | 2027-11-03 | 18.0% | — | $606 | C | KXMISENGOVCO…REP | ||
| Republican party and Michigan Senate winner be Republican | 2027-11-03 | 14.0% | — | $1.1K | C | KXMISENGOVCO…REP | ||
| Republican party and Michigan Senate winner be Democratic | 2027-11-03 | 3.0% | — | $505 | C | KXMISENGOVCO…DEM |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If ALL of the following occur: Michigan Governor winner: Democratic party, Michigan Senate winner: Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Michigan Governor winner (GOVPARTY), Michigan Senate winner (SENATEPARTY).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (3)
Bureau of Labor Statistics venue-listed Bureau of Labor Statistics venue-listed Federal Reserve Board of Governors venue-listed
recent wire items
- Michigan same-party gov and senate sweep holds near 64% Kalshi 64%
- Kalshi prices a 64% chance Michigan elects a governor and senator from the same party in the next election.
- Midterm election analysis points to elevated Democratic competitiveness in Michigan, consistent with a better-than-even chance of a unified sweep.
- A companion Kalshi contract on Florida's 25th House seat sits at 71%, suggesting competitive-state outcomes are broadly pricing in slight Democratic or incumbent-party edges.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics as the named source, though this is an unusual resolver for an election outcome; official election certification would be the expected mechanism.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmisengovcombo-26nov/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmisengovcombo-26nov |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmisengovcombo-26nov") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5BB4SFW2V1",
"slug": "kxmisengovcombo-26nov",
"question": "Will Michigan elect a governor and senator from the same party in the next election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"michigan-politics",
"2026-elections",
"governor-senate-combo",
"party-control",
"us-midwestern-politics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 8329,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_none"
],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "no_source_stated",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}