Which AI will be the first to achieve a score of 1550 on Text Arena? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude | 2027-01-01 | 30.0% | $14 | $10K | C | KXMODELHIGH-…LAU | ||
| ChatGPT | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | $36 | $2.6K | C | KXMODELHIGH-…HAT | ||
| Gemini | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $1.7K | C | KXMODELHIGH-…EMI | ||
| Grok | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | — | $938 | C | KXMODELHIGH-…ROK | ||
| Other | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | — | $105 | C | KXMODELHIGH-…THE | ||
| Qwen | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $20 | C | KXMODELHIGH-…WEN | ||
| Kimi | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $20 | C | KXMODELHIGH-…IMI | ||
| Ernie | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $16 | C | KXMODELHIGH-…RNI |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a model by Alibaba is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)" ↗ sources (1)
- LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmodelhigh-27-1550/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmodelhigh-27-1550 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmodelhigh-27-1550") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-CM6307CNZ7",
"slug": "kxmodelhigh-27-1550",
"question": "Which AI will be the first to achieve a score of 1550 on Text Arena?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai-benchmarking",
"text-arena",
"llm-performance",
"ai-capabilities",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 15539,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
"resolution_source_url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
"url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}