Will the Supreme Court shield Monsanto from Roundup failure-to-warn lawsuits? [ resolves 2026-08-01 (26D) ]
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Monsanto Company in Monsanto Company v. Durnell
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Monsanto Company in Monsanto Company v.… | 2026-08-01 | 79.0% | $1 | $6.9K | A | KXMONSANTODU…AUG |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Supreme Court | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Supreme Court, in Monsanto Company v. Durnell, rules that FIFRA preempts label-based failure-to-warn claims where EPA has not required the warning, then the market resolves to Yes.
The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has issued a decision in Monsanto Company v. Durnell holding that the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act preempts state-law, label-based failure-to-warn claims where EPA has not required the warning, after Issuance and before August 1, 2026. The market resolves to No if the Supreme Court holds that such claims are not preempted. If the case is dismissed, settled, dismissed as improvidently granted, or otherwise disposed of without a merits decision on whether FIFRA preempts such label-based failure-to-warn claims before August 1, 2026, the market also resolves to No.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Supreme Court" sources (2) · single authority
- Supreme Court source of record venue-listed
- Supreme Court of the United States from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmonsantodurnell-26aug/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmonsantodurnell-26aug |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmonsantodurnell-26aug") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3RCX5DMZX9",
"slug": "kxmonsantodurnell-26aug",
"question": "Will the Supreme Court shield Monsanto from Roundup failure-to-warn lawsuits?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"supreme-court-2026",
"monsanto-roundup",
"product-liability",
"preemption-doctrine",
"tort-law"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6885,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Supreme Court",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Supreme Court",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Supreme Court",
"url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Supreme Court of the United States",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}