Will the 30-year mortgage rate reach 7% or higher this year? [ resolves 2026-09 – 2027-04 ]
How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 6.9% | 2026-09-17 | 100.0% | $12 | $2.8K | A | KXMORTGAGERA…6.9 | ||
| ≥ 6.2% | 2027-01-01 | 96.0% | — | $10K | A | KXMORTGAGERA…6.2 | ||
| ≥ 6.3% | 2027-01-01 | 92.5% | — | $8.9K | A | KXMORTGAGERA…6.3 | ||
| ≥ 6.4% | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $7.2K | A | KXMORTGAGERA…6.4 | ||
| ≥ 6.5% | 2027-04-02 | 99.9% | — | $28K | A | KXMORTGAGERA…6.5 | ||
| ≥ 6.6% | 2027-04-02 | 99.0% | — | $12K | A | KXMORTGAGERA…6.6 | ||
| ≥ 6.7% | 2027-04-02 | 92.0% | — | $5.2K | A | KXMORTGAGERA…6.7 | ||
| ≥ 6.8% | 2027-04-02 | 81.0% | — | $3.7K | A | KXMORTGAGERA…6.8 | ||
| ≥ 7% | 2027-04-02 | 40.0% | $18 | $3.7K | A | KXMORTGAGERA…7.0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the 30-Yr FRM is above 6.6% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Freddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey is the source agency.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation venue-listed Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index venue-listed Freddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year? | kalshi | 2026-09-17 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Mortgage rate peak pricing anchors near 6.8 to 6.9 percent Kalshi ladder
- Ladder pricing implies the 2026 peak 30-year mortgage rate in the 6.8-6.9% range: 82% above 6.6%, 50% above 6.8%, 33% above 6.9%, 23% above 7.00%.
- A soft jobs print that keeps Fed rate cuts on hold is consistent with the market pricing a mortgage rate peak well above 6.75% but below 7.00%.
- The companion Kalshi binary CM-EVT-2JCJ075QD1 puts only 13% on the 30-year rate dipping below 5.75% at any point, reinforcing a higher-for-longer mortgage backdrop.
- Resolution tracks Freddie Mac weekly survey data via the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation release series; the ladder resolves on the realized annual peak reading.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmortgagerate-26dec/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmortgagerate-26dec |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmortgagerate-26dec") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VWL3JC3XP3",
"slug": "kxmortgagerate-26dec",
"question": "Will the 30-year mortgage rate reach 7% or higher this year?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"mortgage-rates",
"interest-rates",
"us-housing",
"economic-indicators",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 81678,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Freddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Freddie Mac U.S. weekly averages as of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}