Will the Georgia Senate race have a larger margin of victory than the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (103D) ]
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | FiveThirtyEight | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Georgia Senate achieves the largest margin of victory among the listed options, then the market resolves to Yes.
For instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used.
The margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference in vote share (expressed as percentage) between first and second place finishers. If official results aren't available by the deadline, preliminary results from Source Agencies with at least 95% of expected vote are used.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "FiveThirtyEight" ↗ sources (16) · single authority
- FiveThirtyEight venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- official state or local election division websites venue-listed
- ABC News venue-listed
- Ballotpedia venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- CBS News venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- NBC News venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- in hierarchical order: the official electoral commissions or secretaries of state for each jurisdiction holding elections within <elections> venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmovgancsen-26nov03/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmovgancsen-26nov03 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmovgancsen-26nov03") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GFR52HJHB3",
"slug": "kxmovgancsen-26nov03",
"question": "Will the Georgia Senate race have a larger margin of victory than the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate-2026",
"georgia-politics",
"north-carolina-politics",
"election-margins",
"comparative-politics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7460,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "FiveThirtyEight",
"resolution_source_url": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "official electoral commissions or secretaries of state for each jurisdiction",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "FiveThirtyEight",
"url": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official state or local election division websites",
"url": "https://www.vote.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC News",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Ballotpedia",
"url": "https://ballotpedia.org",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS News",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC News",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order: the official electoral commissions or secretaries of state for each jurisdiction holding elections within " ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}