Will Ryan Busse be the Democratic nominee for MT-01? [ resolved 2026-06-03 ]
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Sam Forstag wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MT-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Sam Forstag be the Democratic nominee for MT-01? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 100% |
| NO | Will Matt Rains be the Democratic nominee for MT-01? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will Russell Cleveland be the Democratic nominee for MT-01? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will Ryan Busse be the Democratic nominee for MT-01? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (4 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmt01d-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmt01d-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmt01d-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VDRPQ34M22",
"slug": "kxmt01d-26",
"question": "Will Ryan Busse be the Democratic nominee for MT-01?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-politics",
"2027-election",
"montana",
"house-race",
"democratic-primary"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 37957,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 23,
"rcg_caps": [
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}