Will any politician switch or leave their party in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lisa Murkowski leave the Republican | 2027-01-01 | 24.0% | — | $5.6K | C | KXMTGSWITCH-…URK | ||
| Will Marjorie Taylor Greene leave the Republican party | 2027-01-01 | 16.0% | — | $4.8K | C | KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN | ||
| Will Thomas Massie leave the Republican | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | — | $1.4K | C | KXMTGSWITCH-…MAS | ||
| Will JFET leave the John Fetterman | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | — | $2.9K | C | KXMTGSWITCH-…FET | ||
| Will Henry Cuellar leave the Democratic | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | — | $1.2K | C | KXMTGSWITCH-…UEL | ||
| Will Don Bacon leave the Republican | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $1.3K | C | KXMTGSWITCH-…BAC |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Fox News | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Marjorie Taylor Greene leaves or announces that they are leaving the Republican party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
If Marjorie Taylor Greene changes their official party registration from Republican to another party or to independent/unaffiliated status, or announces they are no longer a member of the Republican party, or is expelled from the Republican party by official party action, then the market will resolve to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Fox News" sources (14)
- Fox News venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- ABC venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmtgswitch-27jan/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmtgswitch-27jan |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmtgswitch-27jan") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-KPJ5X4JLG9",
"slug": "kxmtgswitch-27jan",
"question": "Will any politician switch or leave their party in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"party-switching",
"us-politics",
"political-defection",
"2026-events",
"congressional-members"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 17185,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 72,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "Fox News",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}