Will any member of a legislature switch or leave their party in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]

Will Lisa Murkowski leave the Republican?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date

kalshi 6 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Will Lisa Murkowski leave the Republican	2027-01-01	22.0%	$31	$5.1K	A	`KXMTGSWITCH-…URK`
Will JFET leave the John Fetterman	2027-01-01	16.0%	$1	$2.7K	A	`KXMTGSWITCH-…FET`
Will Thomas Massie leave the Republican	2027-01-01	15.0%	—	$1.4K	A	`KXMTGSWITCH-…MAS`
Will Henry Cuellar leave the Democratic	2027-01-01	14.0%	—	$1.2K	A	`KXMTGSWITCH-…UEL`
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene leave the Republican party	2027-01-01	13.0%	$2	$3.8K	A	`KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN`
Will Don Bacon leave the Republican	2027-01-01	13.0%	—	$1.3K	A	`KXMTGSWITCH-…BAC`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	Fox News	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 6 markets · share this text

If Marjorie Taylor Greene leaves or announces that they are leaving the Republican party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marjorie Taylor Greene changes their official party registration from Republican to another party or to independent/unaffiliated status, or announces they are no longer a member of the Republican party, or is expelled from the Republican party by official party action, then the market will resolve to Yes.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Fox News"

recent wire items

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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmtgswitch-27jan/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmtgswitch-27jan.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxmtgswitch-27jan")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KPJ5X4JLG9",
  "slug": "kxmtgswitch-27jan",
  "question": "Will any member of a legislature switch or leave their party in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "party-switching",
    "us-politics",
    "political-defection",
    "2026-events",
    "congressional-members"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 6,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 15560,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 88,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Fox News",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →