Will Elon Musk's net worth exceed $200 billion on December 31, 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-07 (168D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 21 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $500 | 2027-01-07 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXMUSKNW-26D…500 | ||
| ≥ $600 | 2027-01-07 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXMUSKNW-26D…600 | ||
| ≥ $700 | 2027-01-07 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXMUSKNW-26D…700 | ||
| ≥ $800 | 2027-01-07 | 43.0% | $115 | $2.2K | C | KXMUSKNW-26D…800 | ||
| ≥ $900 | 2027-01-07 | 27.0% | — | $1.1K | C | KXMUSKNW-26D…900 | ||
| ≥ $1,000 | 2027-01-07 | 33.0% | $17 | $364 | C | KXMUSKNW-26D…000 | ||
| ≥ $1,100 | 2027-01-07 | 18.0% | $2 | $547 | C | KXMUSKNW-26D…100 | ||
| ≥ $1,200 | 2027-01-07 | 11.0% | — | $271 | C | KXMUSKNW-26D…200 | ||
| ≥ $1,300 | 2027-01-07 | 26.0% | — | $124 | C | KXMUSKNW-26D…300 | ||
| ≥ $1,400 | 2027-01-07 | 13.0% | — | $77 | C | KXMUSKNW-26D…400 | ||
| ≥ $1,500 | 2027-01-07 | 12.0% | — | $96 | C | KXMUSKNW-26D…500 | ||
| ≥ $1,600 | 2027-01-07 | 5.0% | — | $201 | C | KXMUSKNW-26D…600 | ||
| ≥ $1,700 | 2027-01-07 | 5.0% | — | $208 | C | KXMUSKNW-26D…700 | ||
| ≥ $1,800 | 2027-01-07 | 5.0% | — | $388 | C | KXMUSKNW-26D…800 | ||
| ≥ $1,900 | 2027-01-07 | 8.0% | — | $473 | C | KXMUSKNW-26D…900 | ||
| ≥ $2,000 | 2027-01-07 | 6.0% | — | $472 | C | KXMUSKNW-26D…000 | ||
| ≥ $2,100 | 2027-01-07 | 6.0% | — | $20 | C | KXMUSKNW-26D…100 | ||
| ≥ $2,200 | 2027-01-07 | 3.0% | — | $71 | C | KXMUSKNW-26D…200 | ||
| ≥ $2,300 | 2027-01-07 | 2.0% | — | $64 | C | KXMUSKNW-26D…300 | ||
| ≥ $2,400 | 2027-01-07 | 4.0% | — | $255 | C | KXMUSKNW-26D…400 | ||
| ≥ $2,500 | 2027-01-07 | 1.0% | — | $20 | C | KXMUSKNW-26D…500 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Forbes reports that Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET is above $500 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will be determined by the net worth value displayed for Elon Musk on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires page at 5:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026.
The relevant value is the dollar-denominated net worth shown by Forbes at that time, regardless of any later updates, corrections, or revisions.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index venue-listed
- Forbes Real-Time Billionaires page source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmusknw-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmusknw-26dec31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmusknw-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-C6NH2LNYZ1",
"slug": "kxmusknw-26dec31",
"question": "Will Elon Musk's net worth exceed $200 billion on December 31, 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"elon-musk",
"net-worth",
"wealth-measurement",
"2026",
"billionaire-economics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 21,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6922,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 78,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Forbes Real-Time Billionaires page",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Forbes Real-Time Billionaires page",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}