Central Pacific named storms, 2026 [ resolves 2026-12-08 (126D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 2 | 2026-12-08 | 97.0% | — | $1.6K | A | KXNAMEDSTORM…T-2 | ||
| > 3 | 2026-12-08 | 90.0% | — | $1.3K | A | KXNAMEDSTORM…T-3 | ||
| > 4 | 2026-12-08 | 82.0% | — | $1.8K | A | KXNAMEDSTORM…T-4 | ||
| > 5 | 2026-12-08 | 30.0% | $1 | $227 | A | KXNAMEDSTORM…T-5 | ||
| > 6 | 2026-12-08 | 14.0% | — | $175 | A | KXNAMEDSTORM…T-6 | ||
| > 7 | 2026-12-08 | 10.0% | — | $32 | A | KXNAMEDSTORM…T-7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If more than 2 named storms occur in the Central Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration" sources (2) · single authority
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration venue-listed
- National Weather Service source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxnamedstorm-26dec01cpactot/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxnamedstorm-26dec01cpactot |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxnamedstorm-26dec01cpactot") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-TN6GYRL9M3",
"slug": "kxnamedstorm-26dec01cpactot",
"question": "Central Pacific named storms, 2026",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"central-pacific",
"tropical-cyclones",
"weather-forecasting",
"2026",
"meteorology"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5189,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "National Weather Service",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
"url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "National Weather Service",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}