Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 19000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
kalshi: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 30 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 19000 | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | $94 | $101K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…000 | ||
| Between 19000 and 19499.99 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | $0 | $1.1K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| Between 19500 and 19999.99 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $944 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 | ||
| Between 20000 and 20499.99 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | $0 | $418 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| Between 20500 and 20999.99 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $589 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 | ||
| Between 21000 and 21499.99 | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | — | $1.5K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| Between 21500 and 21999.99 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $818 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 | ||
| Between 22000 and 22499.99 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $833 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| Between 22500 and 22999.99 | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | — | $829 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 | ||
| Between 23000 and 23499.99 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $848 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| Between 23500 and 23999.99 | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | — | $483 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 | ||
| Between 24000 and 24499.99 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $865 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| Between 24500 and 24999.99 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $538 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 | ||
| Between 25000 and 25499.99 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $664 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| Between 25500 and 25999.99 | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | $1 | $872 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 | ||
| Between 26000 and 26499.99 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | $65 | $1.0K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| Between 26500 and 26999.99 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $1.0K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 | ||
| Between 27000 and 27499.99 | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | $9 | $669 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| Between 27500 and 27999.99 | 2026-12-31 | 5.0% | — | $1.8K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 | ||
| Between 28000 and 28499.99 | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | — | $824 | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| Between 28500 and 28999.99 | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | $5 | $2.1K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 | ||
| Between 29000 and 29499.99 | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | $129 | $2.1K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| Between 29500 and 29999.99 | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | $115 | $2.6K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 | ||
| Between 30000 and 30499.99 | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | $151 | $1.5K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| Between 30500 and 30999.99 | 2026-12-31 | 5.0% | $116 | $2.7K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 | ||
| Between 31000 and 31499.99 | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | $246 | $1.8K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| Between 31500 and 31999.99 | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | $216 | $3.7K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 | ||
| Between 32000 and 32499.99 | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | $553 | $4.3K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…250 | ||
| > 33000 | 2026-12-31 | 30.0% | $1.0K | $33K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…000 | ||
| Between 32500 and 33000 | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | $110 | $2.6K | B | KXNASDAQ100Y…750 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | For example, Google Finance | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is below 19000, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after December 31, 2026.
Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets. See the rules for more information.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "For example, Google Finance" ↗ sources (1)
- For example, Google Finance venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxnasdaq100y-26dec31h1600/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxnasdaq100y-26dec31h1600 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxnasdaq100y-26dec31h1600") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-JPWZDPJ339",
"slug": "kxnasdaq100y-26dec31h1600",
"question": "Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 19000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"nasdaq-100",
"stock-index",
"eoy-price",
"2026",
"us-equities"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 30,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 174478,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_illustrative"
],
"resolution_source": "For example, Google Finance",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "For example, Google Finance",
"url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}