CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,450 EVENTS / ~20,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 19000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]

kalshi: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 30 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
< 19000 2026-12-31 9.0%
$94 $101K
B KXNASDAQ100Y…000
Between 19000 and 19499.99 2026-12-31 2.0%
$0 $1.1K
B KXNASDAQ100Y…250
Between 19500 and 19999.99 2026-12-31 2.0%
$944
B KXNASDAQ100Y…750
Between 20000 and 20499.99 2026-12-31 2.0%
$0 $418
B KXNASDAQ100Y…250
Between 20500 and 20999.99 2026-12-31 2.0%
$589
B KXNASDAQ100Y…750
Between 21000 and 21499.99 2026-12-31 3.0%
$1.5K
B KXNASDAQ100Y…250
Between 21500 and 21999.99 2026-12-31 2.0%
$818
B KXNASDAQ100Y…750
Between 22000 and 22499.99 2026-12-31 2.0%
$833
B KXNASDAQ100Y…250
Between 22500 and 22999.99 2026-12-31 3.0%
$829
B KXNASDAQ100Y…750
Between 23000 and 23499.99 2026-12-31 2.0%
$848
B KXNASDAQ100Y…250
Between 23500 and 23999.99 2026-12-31 3.0%
$483
B KXNASDAQ100Y…750
Between 24000 and 24499.99 2026-12-31 2.0%
$865
B KXNASDAQ100Y…250
Between 24500 and 24999.99 2026-12-31 2.0%
$538
B KXNASDAQ100Y…750
Between 25000 and 25499.99 2026-12-31 2.0%
$664
B KXNASDAQ100Y…250
Between 25500 and 25999.99 2026-12-31 1.0%
$1 $872
B KXNASDAQ100Y…750
Between 26000 and 26499.99 2026-12-31 2.0%
$65 $1.0K
B KXNASDAQ100Y…250
Between 26500 and 26999.99 2026-12-31 2.0%
$1.0K
B KXNASDAQ100Y…750
Between 27000 and 27499.99 2026-12-31 3.0%
$9 $669
B KXNASDAQ100Y…250
Between 27500 and 27999.99 2026-12-31 5.0%
$1.8K
B KXNASDAQ100Y…750
Between 28000 and 28499.99 2026-12-31 3.0%
$824
B KXNASDAQ100Y…250
Between 28500 and 28999.99 2026-12-31 4.0%
$5 $2.1K
B KXNASDAQ100Y…750
Between 29000 and 29499.99 2026-12-31 4.0%
$129 $2.1K
B KXNASDAQ100Y…250
Between 29500 and 29999.99 2026-12-31 4.0%
$115 $2.6K
B KXNASDAQ100Y…750
Between 30000 and 30499.99 2026-12-31 3.0%
$151 $1.5K
B KXNASDAQ100Y…250
Between 30500 and 30999.99 2026-12-31 5.0%
$116 $2.7K
B KXNASDAQ100Y…750
Between 31000 and 31499.99 2026-12-31 3.0%
$246 $1.8K
B KXNASDAQ100Y…250
Between 31500 and 31999.99 2026-12-31 7.0%
$216 $3.7K
B KXNASDAQ100Y…750
Between 32000 and 32499.99 2026-12-31 6.0%
$553 $4.3K
B KXNASDAQ100Y…250
> 33000 2026-12-31 30.0%
$1.0K $33K
B KXNASDAQ100Y…000
Between 32500 and 33000 2026-12-31 4.0%
$110 $2.6K
B KXNASDAQ100Y…750
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff For example, Google Finance link Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 30 markets · share this text
If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is below 19000, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after December 31, 2026. Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets. See the rules for more information.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "For example, Google Finance"
sources (1)
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxnasdaq100y-26dec31h1600/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxnasdaq100y-26dec31h1600
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxnasdaq100y-26dec31h1600")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-JPWZDPJ339",
  "slug": "kxnasdaq100y-26dec31h1600",
  "question": "Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 19000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?",
  "category": "financials",
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "nasdaq-100",
    "stock-index",
    "eoy-price",
    "2026",
    "us-equities"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 30,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 174478,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "commitment_uncommitted_illustrative"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "For example, Google Finance",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "For example, Google Finance",
      "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →