Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 26000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 26,000 | 2026-12-31 | 68.0% | $107 | $2.2K | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| ≥ 27,000 | 2026-12-31 | 71.0% | — | $1.8K | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| ≥ 28,000 | 2026-12-31 | 55.0% | — | $1.8K | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| ≥ 29,000 | 2026-12-31 | 64.0% | — | $43 | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| ≥ 30,000 | 2026-12-31 | 37.0% | — | $42 | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| ≥ 31,000 | 2026-12-31 | 50.0% | — | $9 | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| ≥ 32,000 | 2026-12-31 | 50.0% | — | $55 | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| ≥ 33,000 | 2026-12-31 | 51.0% | — | $4 | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| ≥ 34,000 | 2026-12-31 | 39.0% | — | $2 | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| ≥ 35,000 | 2026-12-31 | 35.0% | — | $1 | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| ≥ 36,000 | 2026-12-31 | 33.0% | — | $1 | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| ≥ 37,000 | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | $0 | $0 | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| ≥ 38,000 | 2026-12-31 | 20.0% | — | $1 | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| ≥ 39,000 | 2026-12-31 | 20.0% | — | $11 | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| ≥ 40,000 | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $2 | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| ≥ 41,000 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| ≥ 42,000 | 2026-12-31 | 10.0% | — | $0 | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 |
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | uncommitted | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxndqdiry-26dec31h1600/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxndqdiry-26dec31h1600.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxndqdiry-26dec31h1600") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GNKG1GYDT6",
"slug": "kxndqdiry-26dec31h1600",
"question": "Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 26000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"nasdaq-100",
"stock-index",
"year-end-2026",
"price-prediction",
"financial-markets"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 17,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6039,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 86,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_illustrative"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}