Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 26000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? [ resolves 2027-01-08 (186D) ]
kalshi: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 17 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 26000 | 2027-01-08 | 68.0% | — | $2.4K | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| > 27000 | 2027-01-08 | 90.0% | — | $2.3K | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| > 28000 | 2027-01-08 | 47.0% | — | $1.7K | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| > 29000 | 2027-01-08 | 42.0% | — | $42 | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| > 30000 | 2027-01-08 | 34.0% | — | $121 | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| > 31000 | 2027-01-08 | 60.0% | — | $11 | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| > 32000 | 2027-01-08 | 50.0% | — | $55 | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| > 33000 | 2027-01-08 | 51.0% | — | $4 | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| > 34000 | 2027-01-08 | 39.0% | — | $2 | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| > 35000 | 2027-01-08 | 35.0% | — | $1 | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| > 36000 | 2027-01-08 | 33.0% | — | $1 | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| > 37000 | 2027-01-08 | 1.0% | — | $0 | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| > 38000 | 2027-01-08 | 20.0% | — | $1 | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| > 39000 | 2027-01-08 | 20.0% | — | $11 | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| > 40000 | 2027-01-08 | 1.0% | — | $2 | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| > 41000 | 2027-01-08 | 0.0% | — | — | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 | ||
| > 42000 | 2027-01-08 | 10.0% | — | $0 | B | KXNDQDIRY-26…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | For example, Google Finance | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 26000, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "For example, Google Finance" ↗ sources (1)
- For example, Google Finance venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxndqdiry-26dec31h1600/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxndqdiry-26dec31h1600 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxndqdiry-26dec31h1600") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GNKG1GYDT6",
"slug": "kxndqdiry-26dec31h1600",
"question": "Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 26000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"nasdaq-100",
"stock-index",
"year-end-2026",
"price-prediction",
"financial-markets"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 17,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6768,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_illustrative"
],
"resolution_source": "For example, Google Finance",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "For example, Google Finance",
"url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}