CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,000 EVENTS / ~16,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 26000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]

kalshi: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
kalshi 17 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
≥ 26,000 2026-12-31 68.0%
$107 $2.2K
B KXNDQDIRY-26…000
≥ 27,000 2026-12-31 71.0%
$1.8K
B KXNDQDIRY-26…000
≥ 28,000 2026-12-31 55.0%
$1.8K
B KXNDQDIRY-26…000
≥ 29,000 2026-12-31 64.0%
$43
B KXNDQDIRY-26…000
≥ 30,000 2026-12-31 37.0%
$42
B KXNDQDIRY-26…000
≥ 31,000 2026-12-31 50.0%
$9
B KXNDQDIRY-26…000
≥ 32,000 2026-12-31 50.0%
$55
B KXNDQDIRY-26…000
≥ 33,000 2026-12-31 51.0%
$4
B KXNDQDIRY-26…000
≥ 34,000 2026-12-31 39.0%
$2
B KXNDQDIRY-26…000
≥ 35,000 2026-12-31 35.0%
$1
B KXNDQDIRY-26…000
≥ 36,000 2026-12-31 33.0%
$1
B KXNDQDIRY-26…000
≥ 37,000 2026-12-31 1.0%
$0 $0
B KXNDQDIRY-26…000
≥ 38,000 2026-12-31 20.0%
$1
B KXNDQDIRY-26…000
≥ 39,000 2026-12-31 20.0%
$11
B KXNDQDIRY-26…000
≥ 40,000 2026-12-31 1.0%
$2
B KXNDQDIRY-26…000
≥ 41,000 2026-12-31 0.0%
B KXNDQDIRY-26…000
≥ 42,000 2026-12-31 10.0%
$0
B KXNDQDIRY-26…000
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff uncommitted link Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 17 markets · share this text
If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 26000, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxndqdiry-26dec31h1600/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxndqdiry-26dec31h1600.json
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxndqdiry-26dec31h1600")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-GNKG1GYDT6",
  "slug": "kxndqdiry-26dec31h1600",
  "question": "Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 26000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?",
  "category": "financials",
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "nasdaq-100",
    "stock-index",
    "year-end-2026",
    "price-prediction",
    "financial-markets"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 17,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 6039,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 86,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "uncommitted_illustrative"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →