Will U.S. nonfarm productivity year-over-year growth exceed 3% in any quarter of 2026? [ resolves 2027-06-02 (331D) ]
Will U.S. nonfarm productivity YoY in any quarter for 2026 be above 3%?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 3% | 2027-06-02 | 55.0% | — | $28K | A | KXNFPROD-27M…-T3 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If U.S. nonfarm business sector labor productivity year-over-year growth is above 3% in any quarter of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Only the first non-preliminary release for each quarter will be considered. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index venue-listed
recent wire items
- Nonfarm productivity above 3 percent in 2026 anchors near even odds Kalshi 45%
- Kalshi prices the US nonfarm productivity YoY above 3% in any 2026 quarter at 45%, near even odds.
- Cooling inflation reduces nominal output distortion, but does not directly confirm real productivity gains above 3%.
- The Fed holding rates steady despite softer CPI keeps financing costs elevated, which could compress capital investment and weigh on productivity.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation releases; quarterly data cadence means multiple resolution windows remain in 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxnfprod-27mar04/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxnfprod-27mar04 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxnfprod-27mar04") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-99JZRM47M6",
"slug": "kxnfprod-27mar04",
"question": "Will U.S. nonfarm productivity year-over-year growth exceed 3% in any quarter of 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-economics",
"productivity",
"labor-markets",
"quarterly-threshold",
"2026-data"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 28320,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}