Will the Governor of New Hampshire and the U.S. Senator from New Hampshire be from the same political party by 2027? [ resolves 2027-11-03 (456D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican party and New Hampshire Senate winner be Democratic | 2027-11-03 | 75.0% | $15 | $4.6K | A | KXNHSENGOVCO…DEM | ||
| Democratic party and New Hampshire Senate winner be Democratic | 2027-11-03 | 15.0% | — | $736 | A | KXNHSENGOVCO…DEM | ||
| Republican party and New Hampshire Senate winner be Republican | 2027-11-03 | 10.0% | $0 | $387 | A | KXNHSENGOVCO…REP | ||
| Democratic party and New Hampshire Senate winner be Republican | 2027-11-03 | 5.0% | — | $591 | A | KXNHSENGOVCO…REP |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If ALL of the following occur: New Hampshire Governor winner: Democratic party, New Hampshire Senate winner: Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: New Hampshire Governor winner (GOVPARTY), New Hampshire Senate winner (SENATEPARTY).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
Bureau of Labor Statistics committed source Bureau of Labor Statistics committed source Federal Reserve Board of Governors venue-listed
recent wire items
- New Hampshire same-party governor-senate outcome stays favored Kalshi 71%
- Kalshi prices New Hampshire electing a governor and senator from the same party at 71%, making it the most likely single-party sweep among tracked states.
- Volume on this contract jumped 194x day over day, consistent with primary results shifting the perceived probability of a unified New Hampshire outcome.
- Iowa's same-party contract at 35% and Michigan's at 53% show the market sees wide variation in state-level sweep probability across competitive midterm battlegrounds.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics as named source; final settlement depends on certified general-election results in November 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxnhsengovcombo-26nov/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxnhsengovcombo-26nov |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxnhsengovcombo-26nov") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2P1810WLM7",
"slug": "kxnhsengovcombo-26nov",
"question": "Will the Governor of New Hampshire and the U.S. Senator from New Hampshire be from the same political party by 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-elections-2026",
"new-hampshire",
"governor-senate-combo",
"partisan-outcome",
"state-politics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6288,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}