Will the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize be awarded by January 1, 2027? [ resolves 2026-10 – 2027-01 ]
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 21 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yulia Navalnaya · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2026-10-09 | 0.0% | — | $37 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…NAV | ||
| Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize | 2026-10-09 | 0.0% | — | $34 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…KUL | ||
| Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize | 2027-01-01 | 32.0% | $1.2K | $11K | A | KXNOBELPEACE…SUD | ||
| Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | $10 | $1.6K | A | KXNOBELPEACE…DOC | ||
| Save the Children · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | $1 | $307 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…STC | ||
| Shehbaz Sharif · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 8.9% | $70 | $87 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…SHA | ||
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | $46 | $1.2K | A | KXNOBELPEACE…VOL | ||
| Donald Trump · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | $82 | $24K | A | KXNOBELPEACE…DJT | ||
| Narges Mohammadi · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | — | $50 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…NAR | ||
| Minneapolis · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | $1 | $603 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…MIN | ||
| Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | — | $1 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…CPJ | ||
| International Criminal Court · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | — | $9 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…ICC | ||
| Pope Leo XIV · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | $41 | $1.4K | A | KXNOBELPEACE…LEO | ||
| UNRWA · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | — | $175 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…RWA | ||
| Francesca Albanese · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $97 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…FRA | ||
| Elon Musk · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $192 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…ELO | ||
| Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $93 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…ICJ | ||
| Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $15 | A | KXNOBELPEACE-26-CE | ||
| European Union · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $4 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…EUR | ||
| Dario Amodei · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $1 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…DAR | ||
| Sam Altman · Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $1 | A | KXNOBELPEACE…SAM |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Nobel Prize organization | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Donald Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Nobel Foundation. Any references to the Nobel Foundation or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Nobel Foundation and Kalshi.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Nobel Prize organization" sources (1) · single authority
Nobel Prize organization committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | kalshi | 2026-10-09 | 0% |
| NO | Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? | kalshi | 2026-10-09 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Fresh money backs Navalnaya in Nobel winner field at 29% 29% · $95K 24h
- Kalshi's open-field Nobel contract prices Navalnaya at 29%, the top single-candidate reading in the market.
- 82% of all-time volume hit in one session, the deepest single-day share of any contract in this batch.
- Simultaneous surge across Polymarket and Kalshi Nobel contracts confirms cross-venue directional attention, not venue-specific arbitrage.
- Resolves on the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize announcement.
- Traders back a non-Navalnaya Nobel outcome at 40% on Kalshi 40% · $13K 24h
- Kalshi's alternate Nobel contract prices non-Navalnaya outcomes collectively at 40%, reflecting meaningful residual uncertainty in the field.
- 35% of all-time volume in 24h, lighter than the 82% spike in Spike 1, but still active given proximity to announcement.
- Divergence across Kalshi Nobel contracts implies traders are hedging between Navalnaya and the broader field, not converging on a single name.
- Resolves on the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize announcement.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxnobelpeace-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxnobelpeace-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxnobelpeace-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2G1CVPVX54",
"slug": "kxnobelpeace-26",
"question": "Will the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize be awarded by January 1, 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"nobel-peace-prize",
"2026",
"international-recognition",
"peace-advocacy",
"annual-award"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 21,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 40659,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Nobel Prize organization",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nobelprize.org/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Nobel Prize organization",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Nobel Prize organization",
"url": "https://www.nobelprize.org/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}