How many government shutdowns will occur in 2026? [ resolves 2027-04-01 (269D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the… | 2027-04-01 | 58.0% | — | $15K | C | KXNUMSHUTDOW…-T2 | ||
| Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the… | 2027-04-01 | 22.0% | $18 | $1.6K | C | KXNUMSHUTDOW…-T3 | ||
| Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the… | 2027-04-01 | 7.7% | — | $105 | C | KXNUMSHUTDOW…-T4 | ||
| Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the… | 2027-04-01 | 8.7% | — | $32 | C | KXNUMSHUTDOW…-T5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the Statistical Review of World Energy | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) is exactly 2 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Link to associated contract: GOVTSHUTLENGTH.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the Statistical Review of World Energy" sources (1)
- the Statistical Review of World Energy venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxnumshutdowns-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxnumshutdowns-27jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxnumshutdowns-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-1G9DN35XX0",
"slug": "kxnumshutdowns-27jan01",
"question": "How many government shutdowns will occur in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-government",
"fiscal-policy",
"congressional-deadlock",
"2026",
"quantitative-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 16500,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 51,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_none"
],
"resolution_source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "no_source_stated",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}