Will Micah Lasher be the Democratic nominee for NY-12? [ resolves 2026-11-04 (154D) ]
Will Micah Lasher be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 20 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Micah Lasher be the Democratic nominee for NY-12 | 2026-11-04 | 56.0% | $367 | $62K | C | KXNY12D-26-MLAS | ||
| Will Alex Bores be the Democratic nominee for NY-12 | 2026-11-04 | 41.0% | $1.5K | $45K | C | KXNY12D-26-ABOR | ||
| Will Jack Schlossberg be the Democratic nominee for NY-12 | 2026-11-04 | 6.3% | $14 | $8.2K | C | KXNY12D-26-JSCH | ||
| Will George Conway be the Democratic nominee for NY-12 | 2026-11-04 | 2.0% | — | $289 | C | KXNY12D-26-GCON | ||
| Will Laura Dunn be the Democratic nominee for NY-12 | 2026-11-04 | 1.0% | — | $13 | C | KXNY12D-26-LDUN | ||
| Will Erik Bottcher be the Democratic nominee for NY-12 | 2026-11-04 | 0.1% | — | $15 | C | KXNY12D-26-EBOT | ||
| Will Julie Menin be the Democratic nominee for NY-12 | 2026-11-04 | 0.1% | — | $3 | C | KXNY12D-26-JMEN | ||
| Will Liam Elkind be the Democratic nominee for NY-12 | 2026-11-04 | 0.1% | — | $2 | C | KXNY12D-26-LELK | ||
| Will Carolyn Maloney be the Democratic nominee for NY-12 | 2026-11-04 | 0.1% | — | $2 | C | KXNY12D-26-CMAL | ||
| Will Lina Khan be the Democratic nominee for NY-12 | 2026-11-04 | 0.1% | — | $2 | C | KXNY12D-26-LKHA | ||
| Will Cameron Kasky be the Democratic nominee for NY-12 | 2026-11-04 | 0.1% | — | $9 | C | KXNY12D-26-CKAS | ||
| Will Brad Hoylman-Sigal be the Democratic nominee for NY-12 | 2026-11-04 | 0.1% | — | $1 | C | KXNY12D-26-BHOY | ||
| Wil Scott Stringer be the Democratic nominee for NY-12 | 2026-11-04 | 0.1% | — | $1 | C | KXNY12D-26-SSTR | ||
| Will Keith Powers be the Democratic nominee for NY-12 | 2026-11-04 | 0.1% | — | $1 | C | KXNY12D-26-KPOW | ||
| Will Liz Krueger be the Democratic nominee for NY-12 | 2026-11-04 | 0.1% | — | $1 | C | KXNY12D-26-LKRU | ||
| Will Gale Brewer be the Democratic nominee for NY-12 | 2026-11-04 | 0.1% | — | $1 | C | KXNY12D-26-GBRE | ||
| Will Chelsea Clinton be the Democratic nominee for NY-12 | 2026-11-04 | 0.1% | — | $5 | C | KXNY12D-26-CCLI | ||
| Will Andrew Cuomo be the Democratic nominee for NY-12 | 2026-11-04 | 0.1% | — | $15 | C | KXNY12D-26-ACUO | ||
| Will Cynthia Nixon be the Democratic nominee for NY-12 | 2026-11-04 | 0.1% | — | $1 | C | KXNY12D-26-CNIX | ||
| Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-12 | 2026-11-04 | 0.1% | — | $4 | C | KXNY12D-26-BLAN |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Micah Lasher wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NY-12 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxny12d-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxny12d-26.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxny12d-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-54JFD3XF15",
"slug": "kxny12d-26",
"question": "Will Micah Lasher be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"ny-12",
"democratic-primary",
"2026-election",
"us-politics",
"nominee-selection"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 20,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 116385,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 38,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}