The number of full-width New York Times front page headlines in Jul 2026 [ resolves 2026-10-30 (99D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the number of full-width New York Times front page headlines be at least 1… | 2026-10-30 | 97.0% | — | $35K | C | KXNYTHEAD-26JUL-T1 | ||
| Will the number of full-width New York Times front page headlines be at least 2… | 2026-10-30 | 8.0% | $8 | $424 | C | KXNYTHEAD-26JUL-T2 | ||
| Will the number of full-width New York Times front page headlines be at least 3… | 2026-10-30 | 9.0% | $4 | $316 | C | KXNYTHEAD-26JUL-T3 | ||
| Will the number of full-width New York Times front page headlines be at least 5… | 2026-10-30 | 1.0% | $1 | $14 | C | KXNYTHEAD-26JUL-T5 | ||
| 10 | 2026-10-30 | 1.0% | — | $14 | C | KXNYTHEAD-26…T10 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | New York Times | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the number of New York Times front page banner headlines is at least 1 in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
"Banner headline" refers to a standalone centered headline surrounded only by whitespace. This market resolves based on the front page displayed in the NYT Store's 'Front Page Reprint' section.
Past examples: Jan 5, 2026; Jan 4, 2026; Nov 5, 2025; May 31, 2024; Jun 24, 2016
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "New York Times" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- New York Times source of record venue-listed
- NYT Store's 'Front Page Reprint' section from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the number of full-width New York Times front page headlines be at least 1 in Jul 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 97% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxnythead-26jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxnythead-26jul |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxnythead-26jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DFDYXQ5SX3",
"slug": "kxnythead-26jul",
"question": "The number of full-width New York Times front page headlines in Jul 2026",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"politics-news",
"july-2026",
"media-coverage",
"headline-driven",
"current-events"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 35814,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 75,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "New York Times",
"resolution_source_url": "https://store.nytimes.com/collections/new-york-times-page-reprints/products/new-york-times-front-page-reprint",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "New York Times",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "New York Times",
"url": "https://store.nytimes.com/collections/new-york-times-page-reprints/products/new-york-times-front-page-reprint",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NYT Store's 'Front Page Reprint' section",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}