Will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce a new device? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce | 2027-01-01 | 27.0% | $73 | $11K | C | KXOAIHARDWAR…UDS | ||
| What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce | 2027-01-01 | 21.0% | — | $2.4K | C | KXOAIHARDWAR…ONE | ||
| What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce | 2027-01-01 | 18.0% | $33 | $2.5K | C | KXOAIHARDWAR…SES | ||
| What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce | 2027-01-01 | 18.0% | — | $3.3K | C | KXOAIHARDWAR…PON | ||
| What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | — | $329 | C | KXOAIHARDWAR…LAY | ||
| What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | — | $225 | C | KXOAIHARDWAR…-PC | ||
| What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $93 | C | KXOAIHARDWAR…LET | ||
| What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $101 | C | KXOAIHARDWAR…ING | ||
| What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $128 | C | KXOAIHARDWAR…ACE | ||
| What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce | 2027-01-01 | 2.0% | — | $52 | C | KXOAIHARDWAR…TCH |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Sam Altman | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If OpenAI announces its first hardware device as part of their collaboration/acquisition of Jony Ive's io that is Phone before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
If a device fulfills multiple device categories (e.g. , combined headphones and earbuds) then all relevant categories will resolve to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Sam Altman" ↗ sources (5)
- Sam Altman venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxoaihardware-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxoaihardware-27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxoaihardware-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-G7HVJMD3X0",
"slug": "kxoaihardware-27",
"question": "Will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce a new device?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"jony-ive",
"openai",
"hardware-announcement",
"device-type",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 19677,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 60,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "Sam Altman",
"resolution_source_url": "https://twitter.com/sama",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Sam Altman",
"url": "https://twitter.com/sama",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}