Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]
Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reza Pahlavi · Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran? | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | $91 | $112K | C | KXPAHLAVIHEA…PAH |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Washington Post | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Reza Pahlavi is appointed, elected, named, designated, or succeeded to the position as the head of state or government of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Washington Post" sources (21)
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- ESPN venue-listed
- NBC venue-listed
- TechCrunch venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- Wired venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- The Athletic venue-listed
- company/organization venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- ABC venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxpahlavihead-27jan/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxpahlavihead-27jan |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxpahlavihead-27jan") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-NNKX7VYC75",
"slug": "kxpahlavihead-27jan",
"question": "Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?",
"category": "companies",
"tags": [
"companies",
"iran-politics",
"heads-of-state",
"reza-pahlavi",
"regime-change",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 112333,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 16,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"discretionary_trigger_no_source",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ESPN",
"url": "https://www.espn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "TechCrunch",
"url": "https://techcrunch.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Wired",
"url": "https://www.wired.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Athletic",
"url": "https://theathletic.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "company/organization",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": " The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}