How many people will Trump pardon by July 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-01 (9D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 0 | 2026-08-01 | 1.0% | — | $268 | A | KXPARDONSTRU…L-0 | ||
| Exactly 1 | 2026-08-01 | 1.0% | — | $142 | A | KXPARDONSTRU…L-1 | ||
| Exactly 2 | 2026-08-01 | 1.0% | — | $25 | A | KXPARDONSTRU…L-2 | ||
| Between 3 and 9 | 2026-08-01 | 1.0% | — | $98 | A | KXPARDONSTRU…L-6 | ||
| Between 10 and 24 | 2026-08-01 | 90.0% | $28 | $8.8K | A | KXPARDONSTRU…-17 | ||
| Between 25 and 99 | 2026-08-01 | 12.0% | — | $444 | A | KXPARDONSTRU…-62 | ||
| Between 100 and 249 | 2026-08-01 | 2.0% | — | $104 | A | KXPARDONSTRU…174 | ||
| > 249 | 2026-08-01 | 1.0% | $1 | $82 | A | KXPARDONSTRU…124 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | White House | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to exactly 0 persons in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "White House" sources (3) · single authority
- White House source of record venue-listed
- the Department of Justice venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will exactly 0 people be pardoned in July 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-05 | 1% |
| NO | Will exactly 1 people be pardoned in July 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-05 | 1% |
| NO | Will exactly 2 people be pardoned in July 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-05 | 1% |
| NO | Will between 3 and 9 people be pardoned in July 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-05 | 1% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (4 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxpardonstrump-26jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxpardonstrump-26jul |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxpardonstrump-26jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-JMF35Q0ZY7",
"slug": "kxpardonstrump-26jul",
"question": "How many people will Trump pardon by July 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-pardons",
"us-politics",
"executive-power",
"2026",
"quantitative-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 9930,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 86,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "White House",
"resolution_source_url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "White House",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "White House",
"url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Department of Justice",
"url": "https://www.justice.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}