Jobs added in July 2026 [ resolves 2026-11-06 (106D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25000 | 2026-11-06 | 96.0% | — | $1.7K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 0 | 2026-11-06 | 94.0% | $9 | $1.3K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…-T0 | ||
| > 10000 | 2026-11-06 | 92.0% | $3 | $327 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 20000 | 2026-11-06 | 90.0% | $5 | $2.0K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 30000 | 2026-11-06 | 85.0% | — | $6.2K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 40000 | 2026-11-06 | 81.0% | $22 | $1.5K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 50000 | 2026-11-06 | 74.0% | $1 | $6.1K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 60000 | 2026-11-06 | 67.0% | — | $415 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 70000 | 2026-11-06 | 54.0% | $3 | $1.3K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 80000 | 2026-11-06 | 42.0% | — | $732 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 90000 | 2026-11-06 | 37.0% | — | $301 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 100000 | 2026-11-06 | 33.0% | $1.4K | $6.2K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 125000 | 2026-11-06 | 23.0% | — | $2.8K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | BLS | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above -25000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "BLS" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- BLS venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxpayrolls-26jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxpayrolls-26jul |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxpayrolls-26jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-K086YCMND2",
"slug": "kxpayrolls-26jul",
"question": "Jobs added in July 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-labor",
"jobs-report",
"economic-indicators",
"july-2026",
"monthly-employment"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 30801,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "BLS",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "BLS",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}