U.S. payroll jobs added, July 2026 [ resolves 2026-08 – 2026-11 ]
Will above 70000 jobs be added in July 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 80000 | 2026-08-07 | 0.0% | $302 | $4.0K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| -25000 | 2026-11-06 | 95.0% | $4.1K | $26K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 0 | 2026-11-06 | 93.0% | $293 | $2.7K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…-T0 | ||
| > 10000 | 2026-11-06 | 88.0% | $273 | $1.2K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 20000 | 2026-11-06 | 87.0% | $272 | $4.1K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 30000 | 2026-11-06 | 83.0% | $852 | $25K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 40000 | 2026-11-06 | 79.0% | $2.2K | $24K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 50000 | 2026-11-06 | 73.0% | $436 | $9.8K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 60000 | 2026-11-06 | 65.0% | $1.1K | $11K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 70000 | 2026-11-06 | 60.0% | $1.7K | $10K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 90000 | 2026-11-06 | 38.0% | $1.2K | $2.4K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 100000 | 2026-11-06 | 32.0% | $151 | $7.4K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 125000 | 2026-11-06 | 23.0% | $763 | $5.3K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | BLS | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above -25000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "BLS" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will above 80000 jobs be added in July 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-07 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- July payroll growth seen in the 70K-80K range by prediction markets Kalshi ladder
- The July payroll ladder implies a modal outcome near 70K-80K: 58% above 70K, 43% above 80K, and 95% above zero.
- Soft job openings data is consistent with below-consensus payroll expectations, but the market assigns near-zero chance of outright job losses.
- The ADP employment ladder (CM-EVT-5NXN7ZTR53) implies a similar 50K-75K range for July private payrolls, providing corroborating cross-market support.
- Resolves on the BLS nonfarm payrolls release; the wide spread between 70K and 80K reflects genuine uncertainty ahead of the print.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxpayrolls-26jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxpayrolls-26jul |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxpayrolls-26jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-K086YCMND2",
"slug": "kxpayrolls-26jul",
"question": "U.S. payroll jobs added, July 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-labor",
"jobs-report",
"economic-indicators",
"july-2026",
"monthly-employment"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 133722,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "BLS",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "BLS",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}