Nonfarm payrolls, October 2026 [ resolves 2027-02-05 (185D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25000 | 2027-02-05 | 86.0% | — | $1.2K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 0 | 2027-02-05 | 78.0% | — | $1.9K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…-T0 | ||
| > 10000 | 2027-02-05 | 74.0% | — | $202 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 20000 | 2027-02-05 | 72.0% | — | $66 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 30000 | 2027-02-05 | 67.0% | — | $911 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 40000 | 2027-02-05 | 65.0% | — | $485 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 50000 | 2027-02-05 | 54.0% | — | $450 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 60000 | 2027-02-05 | 52.0% | — | $303 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 70000 | 2027-02-05 | 50.0% | — | $80 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 80000 | 2027-02-05 | 45.0% | — | $83 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 90000 | 2027-02-05 | 40.0% | — | $116 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 100000 | 2027-02-05 | 24.0% | — | $5 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 125000 | 2027-02-05 | 22.0% | — | $232 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | BLS | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above -25000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "BLS" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
recent wire items
- August payroll addition seen near 60K to 70K by prediction markets Kalshi ladder
- Ladder implies the market-weighted payroll add near 60K-70K: 54% above 50K, 48% above 60K, 50% above 70K, a notably flat distribution around that range.
- Wolfe Research's 65K August forecast lands squarely in the ladder's implied central range, suggesting the market is aligned with the soft-payroll consensus.
- Weak job growth would undercut the case for a September Fed hike, creating tension with the 72% Polymarket probability on a 2026 rate increase.
- The ladder covers October additions; August data prints Friday and will be the first live test of whether the sub-100K soft-landing narrative holds.
- Payroll odds stay near even around 70K-80K jobs for October Kalshi ladder
- The Kalshi ladder market-implied mode for October payrolls sits in the 70K-80K range, with 50% above 70K and 45% above 80K.
- RBC's 16K August forecast is far below the ladder's implied range, suggesting the prediction market currently prices a stronger payroll trajectory than the bank's near-term estimate implies.
- The 85% probability above minus-25K shows the market strongly discounts an outright contraction, even amid tariff and Fed headwinds.
- Resolution uses the Bureau of Labor Statistics official nonfarm payroll release for October; benchmark revisions (as in the recent BLS annual revision) can shift the final print after initial release.
- October payrolls outlook holds near 50% at the 70-80K range Kalshi ladder
- The prediction market ladder implies October 2026 payrolls in the 70,000-80,000 range, with the 70K rung at 50% and the 80K rung at 45%.
- July's 23,000 job loss sits well below this implied range, suggesting the market does not yet fully extrapolate the July weakness into October.
- May revised to 63,000 and June to 20,000 already reflect a softening trend; October pricing above zero implies a partial rebound expectation.
- Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payrolls release for October 2026; revisions to prior months could shift the effective benchmark.
- October payrolls implied range stays at 70K-80K on the ladder Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder puts the October 2026 payroll print in the 70,000-80,000 range: 50% above 70,000, 45% above 80,000.
- July's minus 23,000 print is a sharp outlier; the October ladder still prices positive job growth as the modal outcome.
- The 85% probability above minus 25,000 and 78% above zero confirm markets do not expect sustained job losses through autumn.
- Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payroll release for October 2026.
- October payrolls market holds near 70K-80K range Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices October payrolls in the 70K-80K range: 85% above -25K, 50% above 70K, 45% above 80K.
- July's -23,000 print is a sharp miss, but the Kalshi distribution still implies positive October payrolls, suggesting markets treat July as a one-month anomaly.
- The 54% probability above 50K and sharp drop to 24% above 100K shows a compressed, cautious range rather than a recessionary signal.
- Resolution via the Bureau of Labor Statistics October nonfarm payrolls release; government-sector job losses, cited as the July driver, remain a wild card.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxpayrolls-26oct/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxpayrolls-26oct |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxpayrolls-26oct") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
"slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
"question": "Nonfarm payrolls, October 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"jobs-report",
"us-employment",
"october-2026",
"labor-market",
"economic-data"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6066,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "BLS",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "BLS",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}