Nonfarm payrolls, October 2026 [ resolves 2027-02-05 (185D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25000 | 2027-02-05 | 86.0% | — | $1.2K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 0 | 2027-02-05 | 78.0% | — | $1.9K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…-T0 | ||
| > 10000 | 2027-02-05 | 74.0% | — | $202 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 20000 | 2027-02-05 | 72.0% | — | $66 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 30000 | 2027-02-05 | 67.0% | — | $911 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 40000 | 2027-02-05 | 65.0% | — | $485 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 50000 | 2027-02-05 | 54.0% | — | $450 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 60000 | 2027-02-05 | 52.0% | — | $303 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 70000 | 2027-02-05 | 50.0% | — | $80 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 80000 | 2027-02-05 | 45.0% | — | $83 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 90000 | 2027-02-05 | 40.0% | — | $116 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 100000 | 2027-02-05 | 24.0% | — | $5 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 125000 | 2027-02-05 | 22.0% | — | $232 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | BLS | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above -25000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "BLS" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
recent wire items
- October payrolls odds build around 60K to 70K range Kalshi ladder
- The Kalshi payrolls ladder puts the implied range for October at 60,000-70,000: 59% above 60K but only 47% above 70K.
- September's 29,000 print shocked to the downside, and trading volume on this contract exploded 1,045x day over day, the labor market outlook is drawing heavy fresh positioning.
- The ladder shows 86% above zero and 92% above negative 25,000, so the market is not pricing an outright contraction, just a soft trend month.
- The Kalshi contract on a Fed cut greater than 25 basis points this year holds at 3%, suggesting soft payrolls alone are not enough to shift the market toward aggressive easing.
- October jobs above 30K holds at 70% through a volume surge 70% · $10K 24h
- Kalshi prices 30K+ October job adds at 70%, a moderately confident baseline for labor growth.
- 83% of all-time volume landed in 24h, this contract is almost entirely a today story.
- Spike likely driven by early labor-market data releases or ADP/claims prints feeding positioning.
- Resolves on October 2026 nonfarm payrolls release; thin prior history makes this reading fragile.
- October payroll growth seen near 60-70K, market attention surges Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies October payrolls in the 60,000-70,000 range: 49% above 60K, 51% above 70K, a near-even split around that band.
- Volume on this contract surged 42,526% day over day (426x), signaling a sharp spike in market attention following the mixed September employment report.
- The 91% probability above -25,000 and 84% above zero confirm markets are not pricing a contraction; the debate is entirely about the magnitude of growth.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics official nonfarm payroll release for October 2026.
- October payrolls consensus holds in the 60K to 70K range Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies October payroll adds in the 60,000-70,000 range: 52% above 60K but only 43% above 70K.
- September's 29,000 print is directionally consistent with the ladder's cautious distribution, which gives only 25% odds of topping 100,000.
- The ladder still puts 92% above minus 25,000, so outright job losses remain a tail scenario rather than a base case.
- Resolves via FRED (Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation release for October 2026).
- October payrolls implied range holds at 50K-60K Kalshi ladder
- The payroll ladder prices the October 2026 nonfarm change in the 50,000-60,000 range: 67% above 30K, 60% above 40K, dropping to 46% above 60K.
- September's 29,000 print missed estimates sharply; the ladder suggests markets expect a modest October rebound but not a return to strong growth.
- The sharp right-tail drop, only 22% above 100K and 19% above 125K, indicates very low market confidence in a strong October recovery.
- The September positive-growth contract (CM-EVT-MZQH465PC3) saw trading volume surge roughly 9,950 times day-over-day, signaling intense fresh attention on the jobs theme heading into October.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxpayrolls-26oct/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxpayrolls-26oct |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxpayrolls-26oct") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
"slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
"question": "Nonfarm payrolls, October 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"jobs-report",
"us-employment",
"october-2026",
"labor-market",
"economic-data"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6066,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "BLS",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "BLS",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}