Will the October 2026 jobs report meet expectations? [ resolves 2027-02-05 (214D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25000 | 2027-02-05 | 79.0% | — | $1.0K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 0 | 2027-02-05 | 79.0% | — | $1.5K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…-T0 | ||
| > 10000 | 2027-02-05 | 76.0% | — | $207 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 20000 | 2027-02-05 | 69.0% | — | $54 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 30000 | 2027-02-05 | 69.0% | — | $883 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 40000 | 2027-02-05 | 65.0% | — | $485 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 50000 | 2027-02-05 | 54.0% | — | $450 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 60000 | 2027-02-05 | 55.0% | — | $316 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 70000 | 2027-02-05 | 50.0% | — | $80 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 80000 | 2027-02-05 | 45.0% | — | $83 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 90000 | 2027-02-05 | 40.0% | — | $116 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 100000 | 2027-02-05 | 98.0% | — | $12 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 125000 | 2027-02-05 | 26.0% | — | $266 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | BLS | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above -25000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "BLS" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- BLS venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- October payrolls implied range holds near 70K-80K in Kalshi pricing Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies October payrolls in the 70K-80K range: 50% probability above 70K, 45% above 80K.
- June's 57K print, while below expectations, is broadly consistent with a market already pricing a soft but positive payroll regime ahead.
- The distribution shows 85% above minus 25K, meaning outright contraction is heavily discounted despite the weak June read.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payroll release for October 2026; benchmark revisions could shift final settlement.
- October payroll pricing holds above labor contraction despite June miss Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies October 2026 payroll additions in the 70,000-80,000 range: 50% above 70K, 45% above 80K, 24% above 100K.
- June's 57,000 print is well below the ladder's modal October range, suggesting markets expect a mean-reversion rebound rather than sustained weakness.
- The 79% probability above zero and above negative 25K shows near-consensus that October avoids outright contraction, even after the June shock.
- Resolution via the Bureau of Labor Statistics October Employment Situation report; the 100K threshold at 24% is the key upside surprise marker to watch.
- October payrolls consensus wavers near 70K-80K implied range Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies October 2026 job additions in the 70,000-80,000 range: 50% above 70K but only 45% above 80K.
- June's 57,000 print, with 74,000 in prior-month revisions stripped out, signals a trend that the market has begun to reflect for later months.
- The 79% probability above zero jobs confirms no recession-level payroll contraction is priced for October, even as the trend has weakened.
- Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation release for October 2026; benchmark revisions could shift the final figure.
- October jobs market-implied range anchors at 70K-80K Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder pins October 2026 payrolls in the 70K-80K range: 50% above 70K, only 45% above 80K.
- May's 172K print crushed the 85K forecast, yet the forward market implies a significant cooldown by October.
- The 50K strike sits at 54%, suggesting the market is not extrapolating May's strength into autumn.
- Resolution via Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation release; the relevant month's data must be the official BLS print.
- October payrolls consensus anchors in the 70K-80K range Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder pins October 2026 payroll additions in the 70K-80K implied range; 79% above zero, only 24% above 100K.
- May's 172,000 print is well above the market's forward implied range for October, suggesting the market expects some moderation ahead.
- The sharp drop from 54% at the 50K strike to 24% at 100K marks where the distribution thins, showing meaningful tail risk below 100K.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly Employment Situation release for October 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxpayrolls-26oct/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxpayrolls-26oct |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxpayrolls-26oct") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
"slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
"question": "Will the October 2026 jobs report meet expectations?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"jobs-report",
"us-employment",
"october-2026",
"labor-market",
"economic-data"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5534,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "BLS",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "BLS",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}