Nonfarm payrolls, October 2026 [ resolves 2027-02-05 (185D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25000 | 2027-02-05 | 86.0% | — | $1.2K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 0 | 2027-02-05 | 78.0% | — | $1.9K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…-T0 | ||
| > 10000 | 2027-02-05 | 74.0% | — | $202 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 20000 | 2027-02-05 | 72.0% | — | $66 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 30000 | 2027-02-05 | 67.0% | — | $911 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 40000 | 2027-02-05 | 65.0% | — | $485 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 50000 | 2027-02-05 | 54.0% | — | $450 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 60000 | 2027-02-05 | 52.0% | — | $303 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 70000 | 2027-02-05 | 50.0% | — | $80 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 80000 | 2027-02-05 | 45.0% | — | $83 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 90000 | 2027-02-05 | 40.0% | — | $116 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 100000 | 2027-02-05 | 24.0% | — | $5 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 125000 | 2027-02-05 | 22.0% | — | $232 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | BLS | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above -25000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "BLS" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
recent wire items
- October payrolls odds cluster near 70-80K implied range Kalshi ladder
- Ladder prices 51% above 70K jobs added in October and 42% above 80K, implying a market consensus near 70K-80K.
- The Conference Board's 'strong enough' September read is broadly consistent with this mid-range jobs outlook, not a blowout or a contraction.
- The 94% probability above negative 25K shows markets see near-zero risk of an outright job loss month in October.
- Unemployment rate ladder separately prices 71% above 4.1% for October, suggesting modest job growth alongside a slightly elevated unemployment rate.
- October nonfarm payrolls seen around 70K-80K jobs added Kalshi ladder
- The ladder places 50% above 70,000 and 40% above 80,000, with consensus pinned in the 70K-80K range for October payrolls.
- The ADP 4-week average of 18,500 weekly hires implies roughly 74,000 monthly, landing squarely in the ladder's consensus zone; the market is not fading the weak ADP signal.
- The 93% probability above negative 25,000 confirms the market still prices out a payroll contraction despite the softening hiring data.
- The October unemployment ladder (CM-EVT-2X91TW50H2) showing 4.1-4.2% is consistent: moderate payroll growth supports gradual unemployment drift, not a sharp spike.
- October payrolls implied range holds at 50K to 60K jobs Kalshi ladder
- The prediction market ladder implies October payrolls in the 50K-60K range: 56% above 50K but only 43% above 60K.
- The September miss of 29K (Story 3) is lagging news; the market prices October at a modest recovery, not a sustained collapse.
- The 86% probability above zero shows the market firmly rejects an outright contraction in October despite the September shock.
- Resolution uses the BLS Employment Situation report; single-month payroll prints are often revised, which may explain the market's above-zero confidence.
- October jobs market prices in modest gain after weak September Kalshi ladder
- Prediction market ladder implies October 2026 payrolls in the 50,000-60,000 range, with 56% above 50K but only 43% above 60K.
- September's 29,000 print is far below the ladder's implied range, but trading volume surged 531x day-over-day, signaling the weak print is drawing intense fresh attention.
- The distribution still prices 86% odds of positive job growth in October, suggesting the market treats September as a one-month anomaly rather than a trend break.
- Atlanta Fed analysis flags that single monthly payroll reports are volatile and often revised, which is consistent with the market not pricing a sharp deterioration.
- October payrolls seen well below 100K after September miss Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder puts the October 2026 payroll print in the 50K-60K implied range, with 69% pricing above 30K but only 27% above 100K.
- September's 29K print, well below the prior 12-month average of 45K, is consistent with the ladder's skew toward a weak-but-positive October outcome.
- Trading volume on this ladder surged 531x day over day, a strong signal the September miss is drawing heavy fresh attention to October's number.
- The Kalshi contract resolves on the official Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payrolls release for October 2026; any benchmark revision could shift the implied range.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxpayrolls-26oct/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxpayrolls-26oct |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxpayrolls-26oct") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
"slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
"question": "Nonfarm payrolls, October 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"jobs-report",
"us-employment",
"october-2026",
"labor-market",
"economic-data"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6066,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "BLS",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "BLS",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}